Fold TPTK?

[Iq75]

Should i just keep on calling or should i fold this one? The pot is big, but the action is kind of intense on a paired board. UTG+1 is loose and kind of weak. No reads on Co.

0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q.
CO posts 0,25, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 2 fold, CO (poster)calls, button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises, CO calls, BB folds, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, UTG+1 calls,
Hero calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, UTG+1 3-bets (all-in), Hero ????

I know that i should not fold decent hands when the pot is big, but it is likely that i'm behind in this hand. What would have been the right spot to release this hand if any?

How much would you estimate that my pot equity is at the end of the flop and at the spot where i cut the action?

[gharp]

I'd be most worried about the CO in this hand -- his call+cap line on the flop was pretty bizarre. UTG+1 looks like he could just be stacking off with a Q or a flush draw here.

This is a tough turn call. Assuming he caps and bets the river, I think you're getting about 5:1 to see a showdown. Will he have a crappier Q here that often? I'd cross my fingers and click [Call].

[nomadtla]

I'm thinking CO had something like A6 but was gonna pull the famous C/R the turn once he saw enough in the pot he wanted to take it down so capped the flop. UTG+1 could be on anything, but I think CO has you beat. The call is fine but I'd dump the turn unless a queen hit. Save your bets for a better read. You did all you could PF and bet the flop right but I think your spewing to stay.

[imported_exelius]

I would think UTG1 might have a queen also and went for it with the rest of his stack. CO though with the call then cap sounds to me like someone wanting the pot ( loose aggressive). But I'm still learning too. I'd call it down at least to the river

Ex

[Stinkybeaver]

I fold this turn UI. Co caps even though there where two other bettors. Only thing that could be capping which doesn't beat TPTK is a nut flush draw or TP with other kicker.

I don't think you are good here often enough to call it down. Even the cap at flop spells serious trouble.

[HollywoodDB]

I know these hands are tough to lay down, but CO capped the flop then 3-bet the turn, I don't think he's doing this with a hand that can't beat TPTK. This smells like a 6 to me.

I fold. But, I'm a donk.

[Iq75]

I have been thinking this one a lot yesterday….

Giving the action on the flop and the turn, i would say it is very likely that CO caps the turn. That would give me effective odds of 20:4 (5:1). I have only two outs to win if I’m behind (excluding the possibility of quads), so that would give me something like 4,5 % pot equity. If I am ahead, then it is likely that something like 10 outs will kill me (30 % of the deck). That would mean that I would have to be ahead 15 - 20 % of time (just an rough estimate, I did not include implied odds or the fact that UTG+1 is all-in) to make this call profitably.

Giving the action on the flop and the turn, it is clear that the villains have some kind of a hand. One should not play a flush draw (excluding KT/KJ/JT diamonds) or KQ/QJ like that. UTG+1 is loose, but he is also weak and passive. There is a slight chance that I am ahead of one of them, but both and 20 % of time? Dont think so. So it turns out that this one is a fold. Any mistakes in my math?

[ QUOTE ]
I fold. But, I'm a donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

After the math, it turned out that I was the donky playing the way i did in the turn and the river [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]