River hand no. 2

[skp]

MP limper. I raise on the button with AhKh.

Flop: 2h2d7h

I get checkraised. I 3 bet.

Turn: Js

I bet and he calls

River: Qs

Is this a spot to check down the Ak or is it worth a bluff to make the guy lay down his probable 7 or 88 etc. Probably opponent specific but what's the scoop against most guys?

[sleepyjoe]

he's probably not on a heart draw, since you had the top two. I'd say he has a piece of that flop (probably a 7) and you are unlikely to get him off of the hand at this point. Again, very player specific, but I'd say you're screwed. I'd just check behind him on the river and pray.

[anatta]

I know that you have read the Brier/Ciafonne book since I read your review. They are pretty adament about not betting the missed AK. What they say make sense to me, most opponents will call you down with any pair hoping you have just what you got. Even here given your flop strength, I don't think he folds.

On another note, Jan 1 marks the 1 year anniversary of my first Holdem game. I have learned a lot from your posts and saved several of them. Keep up the good work and thanks.

anatta

[Manzanita]

skp,

I agree with your read on MP that he probably has a medium pair. In my experience if they call the turn then they will almost always call again on the river (a scare card could change things but the offsuit Q isn't that scary). I check it down here.

-- Manzanita

[Jamie Collins]

skp,
Like you mentioned betting the river here is highly opponent dependent. You also have to worry about a Q or J high flush draw. However, against an unknown opponent he/she doesn't have to lay down a pair here very often for this to be a +ev play. Also, when you show down AK you can often recoup that bet when you get paid off on other hands.

Jamie

[AceHigh]

Couldn't he have check/raised the flop with a flush draw? Seems his most likely hands are A7s or a flush draw that could easily hold a Q or J. So I would just check.

[Penguin]

Close decision - therefore player dependent as you say.

Against most players at 15-30 here in Calgary, my default would be to check, because if they called the turn with a pair, they're going to call the river.

However, since there are 7BB in there, I would bet at the slightest indication that the 2nd overcard (Q) was too much for them.

[skp]

I did the typical play and checked. My opponent won with 44.

While it is generally correct to check an unimproved Ak on the river, I agree with Penguin that this situation might be an exception. I 3 bet the flop. I then bet when the Jack came (which could have hit me had I 3 bet the flop with no pair) and then we get the Queen on the river (another card that often helps a preflop raiser). From the limper's perspective, he is running out of hands that his pocket pair (or A7 or whatever) can beat. Of course, he is likely to call if he was on a flush draw and paired a Queen or Jack but them's the breaks: The pot is offering me 7:1 on the bluff .

Checking if the river card was lower than a Jack is clear. But I think that betting with Ak as a bluff is worthwhile here.

[skp]

x

[J_V]

I think you have a bet on the river. As I was learning the game of poker, I believed strongly that one should never bluff AK from preflop to finish. And at 10-20 this is almost always the truth, as players are calling you hoping to see exactly AK.
However, since I have starting playing almost exclusively online, I play with a core group of very good players on a regular basis. Eventually, some players picked up on the fact that I never bluffed the river after raising preflop. So, they layed down all but their best hands. I can only say one player for sure was doing this. It's a very advanced strategy that can only be made with a high degree of player knowledge and certainly about that information. I've adapted some since then. Anytime I flop a flush draw after raising preflop, the situation hardly matters, I bet through the end - to vary my game. I figure even in the most hopeless scenarios its only a small EV loss. Shorthanded, this is an obvious automatic.

Also, it's quite profitable (one of the MOST profitable images) to become known as an AK pusher.

In general, the only river bluffs I try to make are to push a player off a better no pair. I don't feel like people fold pairs on the river so I rarely try. But in this situation all the factors are setting up for the river bluff, even though it probably won't work.

You ask some good question SKP. We seem to think the same decisions are close.