The longer it went on the worse it got......

fflyer · #1 05-29-2005, 10:34 AM

Anyone else stay to the end of this hand? If you decide to bail out, when do you do it?

UTG is LA-P (50%:5.36%:1.47 after 112 hands)and CO is also LA-P (39.5%:5.04%:0.95 after 238 hands).

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

So far, pretty standard.

Flop: (7.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero calls, CO caps, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

I decided just to call the initial bet since at this stage I was quite happy for CO to join in. When it was 3 bet by the time it came back to me, I knew that at least one of my opponents had a knave. With ten possible outs against three of a kind and pot odds of around seven to one, I decided to call the three bet. Once it was capped I felt committed to stay in given the size of the pot. Right or wrong?

Turn: (9.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, CO raises, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Yuk. A full house seems more and more likely on this betting. Should I pull out once it gets three bet again?

River: (18.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, UTG+1 caps, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 30.75 BB

I hit my flush and decide to raise, since the betting will get capped if there is a full house regardless of what I do judging by the action so far. When it gets capped again, my call seems to be the ultimate "crying" effort, but with sixty dollars in the pot, what would you do?

Cris · #2 05-29-2005, 10:53 AM

I am probably far off on this one, but I would get out facing the 3-bet on the turn. By that time you have to put in 2 big bets to see the river, and with all that raising you also run the risk of CO capping after you, making it 3 bets total. IMO your odds are good to call if you will win it with a flush or straight, but this does not seem to be obvious.

As for the river, I don't like raising because you think it might get capped no matter what. CO did not cap the turn, and if CO does not have a full house you might save a couple of bets if he does not raise and UTG+1 has a house.

Yako · #3 05-29-2005, 11:04 AM

`blind post`

Ok, the river raise is definitely bad. You want to show down as cheaply as possible, and there's a chance that you could show down for a single bet, but instead you raised which pretty much assures that you'll have to show down for AT LEAST 3 bets. In your case it was a cap, which might have only been 3 had you not raised. But the important decision comes on the turn. You're getting a little better than 7.5:1. If you were sure to win with either a Q or a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , you would need 2.8:1 to call. You have a nice overlay, so I think you can call, but even if you hit, you have to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. NO RAISES. You're gonna be beat more often than not here. I think if you have really good reads on your opponents (you know one of them wouldn't go crazy with Jx on this board against someone else who is going crazy with Jx also), then maybe you can find a fold. I know I don't have the ability to find one at this stage in my learning process. But if you could find one, it would be after the turn 3bet, that's for sure.

brazilio · #4 05-29-2005, 11:26 AM

Get out calling 2 back on the turn, and if for some reason you can't do that, get out calling the river cap.

Aaron W. · #5 05-29-2005, 11:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
UTG is LA-P (50%:5.36%:1.47 after 112 hands)and CO is also LA-P (39.5%:5.04%:0.95 after 238 hands).

[/ QUOTE ]

First, get real reads. By now, you've seen enough hands from these players to know if they have a tendency to overplay hands. If you don't know, then you're not paying enough attention.

Raise the flop. Calling is pedestrian because the board texture is unhealthy for goofing around. There are gutshots on this board which hurt your overcard outs, the board is paired with mid-range connected cards, which hurts your flush outs (as trips filling up by the river here is far more reasonable than on a J33 flop).

The only places you would fold is when the turn gets 3-bet or when the river comes back capped. If either player is reasonable, then you're definitely beat on the river.

A turn fold is a little weak without good reads, and a river fold after it gets capped is infuriating, but probably correct.