Double Shootout Hand

Schaefer · #1 05-28-2005, 10:43 PM

I don't know if this belongs in STT or here. First table, Villain has been very active, playing and raising about a third of all hands, but hasn't gone bonkers preflop like this yet. What is his likely range here? Should I call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed) converter

Button (t1060)
Hero (t2480)
BB (t3040)
UTG (t1640)
MP1 (t1880)
MP2 (t2030)
CO (t1370)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t90, 1 fold, MP2 calls t90, 2 folds, Hero calls t75, BB raises to t3000, UTG folds, MP2 folds, Hero....

woodguy · #2 05-28-2005, 11:12 PM

What do you figure he has?

More than a few players just push AK out of the blinds like this, although you could make an argument for AA-TT as well, depending on the player.

Since I have to include AA-TT, as well as AK for my range of hands here, I lay it down since there is not quite enough dead $$$ in the middle to make it worth calling here.

I have JJ having 43% pot equity against that range.

I could just be a squeeze play by the BB with any two, but again, there really isn't enough $$$ in the middle to make it worth it.

I muck.

Regards,
Woodguy

PrayingMantis · #3 05-29-2005, 08:59 AM

I think this could be a rather close one, depending exactly on how crazy villain is, and if it's the first time he's going over the top like this. Against certain opponents I call this in a heartbeat, knowing I'll see AJ, TT, some weaker hands, enough of the time. Otherwise it becomes a fold, since players like to do this with AK/QQ (and even KK-AA) much more often than other hands, IMO, hoping for a loose call, and without the need to play tricky flops (especially with AK, QQ).

However, a reason to call here against loose enough players even if you're not sure it's significantly +EV, is the fact that it's practically winner takes all, and you will definitely need to gamble at some point (i.e, take a coin flip or two and win them), so why not do it now when there's a good chance you have your opponent drawing very thin.

SossMan · #4 05-29-2005, 11:40 AM

I do this sometimes if I have been really active, raising a lot of hands preflop and people generally laying down to my raises. If I pick up a monster I will push hoping to get a call from 99-JJ. It looks like a set up. I would probably muck, especially since he did this into an UTG raiser. If he does it again, though, I'm calling liberally.

Atropos · #5 05-29-2005, 12:06 PM

I think you are a good enough player to pass up this marginal +EV spot. I dont think you can exclude AA-QQ from his hand range here, that's why it's hard to profit much. The tourney is winner takes it all though which benefits aggressive play. Still I think this is a fold

Schaefer · #6 05-29-2005, 11:36 PM

You guys are smart.

I thought the guy was a decent but not great player and I think this play screams AK. Since it's winner take all I thought for a bit and decided to take the coin flip....except he had KK. I think saying his range is AA-TT and AK is actually too wide. Usually he'll have either AK or AA-KK and I really need to fold here. If I had a bit more info a case could be made for calling but I think I made a big mistake. Yesterday was my first day back in 2 months and I donked it up real bad. Hopefully I get better by next week [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

MLG · #7 05-30-2005, 02:11 AM

JJ against a range of AA/KK/AK is about 40% so with dead money in the pot and a winner take all format this isnt a bad call, and your not making a big mistake either way. On the other hand make it AA/KK/QQ/AK and it is a clearly bad call. On the other other hand make it AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ and its a clear call.

To sum it all up. In general: Yuck.

durron597 · #8 05-30-2005, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
To sum it all up. In general: Yuck.

[/ QUOTE ]

/agree with MLG. But since there is so little dead money in the pot, I think this is a pretty clear fold.

Basically, in general if I see an opponent do something totally out of character (the ONLY time they miniraise preflop in 50 hands... the ONLY time they make a massive overbet raise preflop in 50 hands, etc.) it probably means that they have a very narrow range, probably one that doesn't even include AK. So I just muck.

The caveat to this is if the blind structure dictates that they may have a reason to suddenly make a big variance in their play.

Though despite all that I don't think I would fold QQ here but it's close. JJ and AK yes. I have never folded KK preflop and I have no plans to start.

Jason Strasser · #9 05-30-2005, 02:21 AM

Man.

I tend to call this one much more than I fold it. I think you can include lower pairs like 66 and even worse maybe in a range of hands.

-Jason

TaintedRogue · #10 05-30-2005, 09:36 AM

This is tournament math that I don't know how to compute. I would also fold JJ here, but the decision would come from the seat of my pants, not the math.
I see six hands each of AA,KK,QQ. 16 ea of AK,AQ.
So preflop, I'm a 32/18 favorite to have the best hand before the flop. If I win 52% of those hands, I get the money about 17/32. If I win 8% of the times I'm facing an overpair, that's 1 more hand, maybe 2.
So, by my math, best case would win me 19 out of 50 hands, or 38%.
So it's an easy fold for me if I believe those are the only
hands he would bet that big preflop with.
Would you enlighten me on how to correctly do the math?
Thanks, Ken