99 in mid position

[travlinmatt]

$15-$30 Game, I am in mid-position. There are two limpers to me with pocket nines. I limp as well. Both blinds call. 5 handed.
The flop comes K-Q-9 rainbow. A tight and somewhat straightforward player bets from the small blind. BB folds. A much looser player raises from his early position. (He is equally agressive with a draw as with a made hand). I call two bets, the small blind calls. We are now 3 handed.
The turn comes a 5. It completes the rainbow board. BB checks, the early position player bets, I raise. The small blind looked for a moment and folded. The EP re-raises. I call. The turn is a 3. EP bets, I call.
I am looking for thoughts on my play on every street, particularly the turn. All comments appreciated. (Results to follow)

[KOJAK]

I think I would have made it 4 bets on the turn. I believe you've got the better hand. He didn't raise preflop so KK and QQ are unlikely.

Though he might have JT. But you can't assume he has the nuts right here.

[Dynasty]

Your play was as soft as a Fraggle. There's no good reason to fear the nuts against a very aggressive player. You should have put in a 3rd bet on the flop or a 4th bet on the turn.

[Ginogino]

Matt:
I would have bet the maximum I got the chance to on the flop. You may not yet be beaten by someone holding JT (and lots of players will limp with them and then call a raise pre-flop) but look how vulnerable if a jack or ten falls on the turn or river.

In addition, this gives you a chance to find out on a cheap street whether you're already facing a straight (and I agree with Kojak that you likely aren't up against KK or QQ). Agreed, someone holding the flopped straight may want to wait til the turn to get into a raising war, but he may also worry about redraws against him. In any case, a flop reraise gives him the chance to tell you that he's flopped better than you.

Depending on (a) whether the BB folds and {b) how many raises cap the betting and (c) your casino's rules on when the cap is lifted (if it becomes headsup on the flop) I think I'd put in two raises if I could just to be sure. Your draws are worth the cost of calling the turn bet.

Gino

[skp]

I like the flop play.

You might want to 3 bet if you think that your coldcall will dissuade the flop raiser from leading into you on the turn. IMO, that is the key factor in deciding whether to coldcall or 3 bet the flop.

Turn: Opponent dependant. When you coldcall two bets on the flop and then raise the turn on a blank, your opponent should be putting you on a big hand. Yet, he 3 bets. That should have you think that he has a big hand. The question really is "how big?".

Given the lack of a preflop raise, his flop play should tell you that he has KQ or JT i.e. he probably doesn't have KK or QQ. JT is more likely from a Bayesian analysis perspective given the cards on board. JT is also more likely from a preflop perspective (i.e. he sounds like someone who would generally raise preflop with KQ).

KQ or even Ks9s or Qs9s is more likely from a "flop slowplay" perspective i.e. he may be less likely to raise a bet from his right on the flop with the JT nuts when the pot is fairly small because there was no preflop raise.

If he has JT, he will 5 bet you and you will improve only 10 times out of 44 tries.

Taking all of the above into consideration, I think the decision is close.

[gaylord focker]

If it was a player I respected, I probably would not have 4 bet the turn either, however I think an argument can be made either way. I do think that you have to 3 bet the flop in this situation. With a gutshot out there, you have to everything possible to protect your hand.

[Kevin J]

My first thought was 3-bet the flop immediately. I don't like slowplaying bottom set. Especially not on a board like this where you might get plenty of action anyway. I'd want to charge any pair with a str8 draw, top two, etc. maximum to draw to.

There's one other problem which I feel is VERY important! Quite a few turn cards can cost you money even if they still leave you with the best hand!. For instance, any card in the straight zone, may cause you to slow down against much action (whether or not this card actually made someone straight). Also, the king or queen pairing is somewhat scary as it could make someone a bigger full-house. In either case, you no longer can maximize and get full value for your hand.

Bottom line: I 3-bet the flop and get as much money in there while the going is good. It's unfortunate if you ran into a straight. But even so - Putting money in on the flop can never be too bad, considering your re-draw potential. IMO-

[Kevin J]

"I like the flop play."

Really? No offense to you or Matt, but I kinda don't. While it's very common to wait for the big bet on the turn to put in a raise, I also think it's a bit over-used and not always a well-thought-out play.

KQ9 flop. Now what if a jack or ten turns? You may still hold the best hand, but even so, it somewhat stifles your action and certainly limits the amount of "+EV" money you can get into the pot.

I might like the play a little better if maybe a flush draw was out and the flop came 9s,8s,7x or even Ts,9s,8x. Also, I think 3-betting sets can make you a little harder to read at other times. I won't argue too strongly because I don't think cold-calling is a terrible play. I happen to know Matt and that he's a very good player. But I DO think a lot of people make this play without fully contemplating how future cards (and action) might might quickly change things. IMO-

[mikelow]

Tis not the time to slowplay on the flop. Isn't almost always the case when you flop a set, other possible hands are out there. We can rule out KK or QQ, so your main worry is J-10.

I would 3-bet the flop and continue to pressure on the turn. If played back at, then you know you need the board to pair.

[travlinmatt]

Thanks to those who did respond.
The agressive EP did have 10-J. A flopped straight.
I agree with many of you that this was not a time to slow play. In hindsight I would re-raise on the flop. I really never considered 4 betting the turn against this player. I did not fear QQ or KK, but felt 10-J a likely holding.
One question though...
Does anybody consider simply calling the turn? There is a third player in the hand when after I make my play. How should he influence my decision here? Thanks.