My new money management strategy (comments wanted)

[Holybull]

A little background: I think I'm a good low-limit holdem player. However, I've been very wreckless since I've started playing online about a year ago. When wsex started offering poker, I beat up their 3-6 game for a few months very consistently and substantially. Then, seemingly overnight, the games got much tougher. Regardless, something bad happened and I pissed everything away and then some. I hit"rock bottom" and have now regrouped. I opened a Paradise account. I've started keeping records, which I never did before. Here is my plan, and where I need some help:

I'm starting very modestly ($100). I'll be playing $.50/1.00 Holdem until I have proved that it's time to move up. I plan to play at this limit until I'm up to $150, then play $1/2 until I get to $250 or drop back down to $100 in which case I'll go down in limits. Keep repeating process until I find the right limit for me. Question (1) is are those stop-losses a good way to prevent me from ever having to rebuy?

Are my numbers off base? Thus far, I've played 597 hands at $.50/1.00. I';m up $73. Using a 30 hands-per-hour reference, this is $3.66/"hour". Question (2) is - is this long-term enough to "prove" I can win at this limit? It's been accomplished in 11 sessions, all at least 30 hands. I've had 10 winning sessions and one disastrous -$36 session that still really bothers me. I "know" I can do it, but I want all of my decisions from now on to be rational.

Please comment. Thank you.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If you accept the standard maxim that the proper bankroll to avoid busting out is 300 BB, then your strategy is risky. I bought into Paradise 3 months ago at $600 and started playing exclusively at 2/4, and if it weren't for one night of drunken stupidity at 8/16 that almost busted me out, I'd be a good sight better off than the $50 or so I'm down right now. Now I'm convinced that staying at 1/2 until I get to $1200 is the right way to go. the hardest thing for me to do is to resist the urge to move up a level after a successful week.

I think the biggest mistake is moving up too fast. Why? I think it's important to give yourself time to acclimate to the game at a given level, but also enough time to really understand your own play. hand reading skill, for one, is much harder to master while bouncing from level to level. You say you've played 597 hands at 0.50/1.00. A typical 3 hour online session is about 180-210 hands, so I'd say your sample set is too small.

Say you have $300 and want to play 0.50/1.00 until you have $600 to move up to 1/2. That means you have to win 300 BB at 0.50/1.00. Then assume you can play well enough to earn 2 BB per hour on the average to get there. That's 150 hours, or about 9,000 hands. It sounds like a lot, but by the time you make the move, I'll guarantee you'll know more about your game. And, then, you'll have the bankroll to withstand a 150 BB set back before you have to drop back down.

Again, I'm no expert, and know I have to struggle to practice what I'm preaching, but I believe patience in this quest is crucial.

[J.R.]

This topic has been discussed indepth on this site by those who understand these concepts much better than I, so search the archives, especially the general theory forum.

You need to play longer, as Paradise games can be 50-60 hands per hour, so you have probably only played about 10 hours, which is far from a statistically significant number.

A 300 big bet bankroll should be enough for a player winning 1BB/hour to avoid going broke 95% of the time, and you are nowhere near that. Playing 1-2 with $50 or 25 big bets is not enough, you lost 36 big bets in one .50-1 session. I would try to build my bankroll to at least $400 or buy in for more before I tried to give 1-2 a shot, and $600 bankroll would be better. Otherwise you are just playing as a inadequately bankrolled victim of variance.

[eMarkM]

I could give you the have-your-300BB-so-you-don't-go-broke lecture, but I, too, have been more aggressive in moving up. Why? Because if I go broke, I'll just take a break from the game for an extended period and come back with a fresh attitude and fresh bankroll. It's not like I'm trying to make a living doing this and it's not the end of the world if I lose it.

If I have somewhere between 150-200BB for the next level I make the move up. If I fall from that range into the next lowest, I move down. Similar to what you're suggesting. I just find waiting until I have 300BB before moving up too slow. But that's me. However, I think what you're suggesting is a bit fast. Your schedule has you with about 75BBs in hand before moving up and I think you'll find yourself yoyo-ing too much between levels. Here's how the 150-200 schedule looks:

BB Min Max
== === ===
01 0150 0200
02 0300 0400
04 0600 0800
06 0900 1200
10 1500 2000
16 2400 3200
20 3000 4000
30 4500 6000
40 6000 n/a

So there's some gap between the max of one limit and the low of the other. When I'm coming down and in that gap that's when I usually come down. I don't go up unless I'm at least at the minimum of the next level.

BTW, I used this technique to move from a couple hundred bucks grinding it out in the micros to playing 20/40 with a legit 200BB bankroll. So this works, but it's a lot of flucutations. I had a monster run that led me from 3/6 to 20/40 in about a month [img]/forums/images/icons/cool.gif[/img], leapfrogging the limits with some monster sessions, but I came right back down again [img]/forums/images/icons/mad.gif[/img] and gave much of it back. I keep track of my daily winning/loses and have a chart of my bankroll on a day to day basis. My Sep period looks like an internet stock in '99 and Oct looks like the same stock in '00 [img]/forums/images/icons/shocked.gif[/img].

Anyway, the most difficult thing is getting yourself to come back down in limit, something I didn't do very well after my 20/40 high, I'll admit. You'll be tempted to try and ride it out and stick to that limit even if you fall below your threshold. If you try that on a 75BB schedule I think you're inviting disaster. You have to be disciplined enough to swallow your pride and come down a level. Believe me when I say that it's difficult coming down and playing 3/6 when you've dragged $800 pots before.

At some point hopefully you'll have the pleasant problem of thinking about cash-out management. Afterall, you're doing this not just to have fun, but to make some side money. When I finally hit 20/40 I did the smart thing and cashed some out. But I maintained my discipline of moving up and down limits based on the cash remaining in the account, not total money won. I didn't want to have to turn around and deposit it right back. This has worked out well, even if it's forced me to move down lower in limits than I could afford if I just kept it all in.

On another note, if you're going to keep good track of your progress I suggest you get PokerStat or some other program that will grab hand histories and do all the number crunching for you. It's also an excellent program for tracking your opponents.

[butters]

where are the major "jumps" in talent level as far as moving up to bigger games? i'm thinking .50/1 through 2/4 (3/6?) have players with skill levels that are at least in the same ballpark. if i move from 3/6 to 5/10, i'm not sure if the same is true.

[Roy Munson]

I can't speak for .50/1.00. As far as 1-2 through 5-10, generally the overall players skill levels increase incrementally with each increase in limits.
With each increase the players tend to become more selective with starting hands, more aggressive with the hands they play and trickier post flop. Of course there are isolated exceptions to this but for the most part it holds true.
I don't believe that there is a major jump in talent from one level to the next, instead it seems more gradual.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

from my experience, there is a noticeable change in skill/style between 1/2 and 2/4 on Paradise.

[eMarkM]

Very roughly, I find the talent level changes from these groups.

.5/1 - 1/2, beginners, many soft games
2/4 - 3/6, intermediate, sometimes soft, sometimes tough
5/10 - 10/20, intermediate, many tough games
15/30 - 20/40, expert, nearly always tough

You'll often find the same group of regulars coming in and out of these groupings. Again, I say very roughly, since any table at any time can give you a good game or tough one. Sometimes the high level games can be softer than the mid level. And ALL levels have their fish. Some of the worst will play 20/40, but they're generally surrounded by guys who are damn good and don't give up anything and take all their money.

[Homer]

I wasn't going to respond, but then I saw your "(comments wanted)" comment in the heading, so I decided to chime in.

I would put in more time at .5/1 if your bankroll isn't easily replenishable. There is a good chance of busting out at 1/2 with only $150, or having to move back down to .5/1 after only losing $50. I would try to build up to $250 or so at .5/1 before taking a stab at 1/2.

-- Homer

[Homer]

I think the relative jump in skill level from .5/1 to 2/4 is less than that from 2/4 to 5/10, FWIW...

-- Homer