Please Help with B&M Tourney Hand

[MeanGreenTT]

Local dog track card room, 120 people, $45 buy-in and top 9 paid.

Hand occurs during round 6, blinds at 200/400. I was moved to this table during the last round and have open-raised to take the blinds and raised with one all-in caller (T500) showing K2 against my AA [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I'm now at T3000 and there are 4 tables left. We get 3 new players, one of which I know to be a solid player.

EP2 pushes for his last T400 and 2 MP players call (one that I know), then folded to me on the button with ATo. I have both players covered by a BB or two.

I hate limping in this position and my stack size, it's either fold or push in my mind. I need to at least double up to have any reasonable shot at the final table....what's your line here?

Thanks

[billyjex]

this is a toughie. i think you need to assess yourself if you think you have enough folding equity here. you don't want to get called.

that said, the players have shown weakness by limping but sometimes bad players will limp with mid pockets, AJ/AQ here even when limping is a signifigant portion of their stack and be willing to call an all in.

however, as you said you need to double up to get to the final table. there's already 1800 in the pot (which you'll need to fight EP2 for, but your hand is probably ahead.) If you get called, it might be a race or maybe you can suck out. I've talked myself into pushing here.

[Lloyd]

Do you know the first MP caller? Is he someone who would cold call the all-in trying to trap with AA? I'm not too worried about the second caller. I'd put him on a small/medium pair, Ax, or some other drawing hand. With no further reads I think I'd push to try and get a lot of dead money in the pot with good odds.

[lies]

im folding here

[MeanGreenTT]

Thanks Billy, appreciate the feedback! I'm glad this one is a little tougher, I've posted some questions in the past that were too basic [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

lies, care to expand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you know the first MP caller? Is he someone who would cold call the all-in trying to trap with AA? I'm not too worried about the second caller. I'd put him on a small/medium pair, Ax, or some other drawing hand. With no further reads I think I'd push to try and get a lot of dead money in the pot with good odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

No read on the 1st limper at all but I have a good general feel for people and I didn't sense he was strong here or being tricky.

Appreciate the reply, thanks!

[petvan]

I fold here and wait for a better spot.. against 3 i just don't like your chances here. .AQo i might think about it more, but likely still fold. With 3 already in, its too risky for me.

P

[runout_mick]

WHY is this too risky? With this risk comes the proportional reward, no? Doesn't a push here also represent great strength and increase your FE? With the all in player, they KNOW it's not an outright steal...

[Mez]

Tought decision. billyjex's point about folding equity is right on - you don't want to be called.

I'd likely push here because you're so short 8.5x and bc the MPs know that they will see your hand even if they do fold, increasing your fold equity.

[marrek]

i think its close between calling and folding.

if one of the mps had you beat, they *should* be raising ( unless they have AA or KK). But on the other hand they might decide to call you with a 77 or 88.

the best case scenario ( and most likely) is if you push and the mps fold. But you still have to race against the ep all in, and while you're probably going to start as a favorite , you might not end up as one. If you *knew* for sure they'd fold, then pushing is right because of he "dead" $$. Its also worth the risk of the BB waking up with a big hand.

The real risk is in pushing and getttinhg called, because if you get called, you're going to be a dog. So the real question is how likely is it that one of the mps will call you. And since the 2nd MP over called the limp, hes unlikley to have a hand he can call with.

So really, mp1 is the player you need a read on. You think he's not strong, but will he fold if you push? You really don't want to be called with ATo.
does he have enough chips to fold?

Marrek