What kind of variance would you consider normal?

[bigredlemon]

It seems like I'm getting 20BB swings hour to hour lately... this is a wildly high variation for stud8 isnt it? What kind of variance do you guys usually have?

[boondockst]

It's been crazy on party for me lately...I sat down and in 45 minutes made 40BB and then later that night (late night PST) dropped about 70BB. One loss was a 2.95% one and villains were capping on 3rd with split tens. I find the most effective style to play against is the opponents who check/call and very occasionally raise when their hand hits fairly hard. They usually call you down with any pair and will often not be aggressive enough with a premium hand.

[DeadMoneyOC]

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It seems like I'm getting 20BB swings hour to hour lately... this is a wildly high variation for stud8 isnt it? What kind of variance do you guys usually have?

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I think this depends on how many hands you play. If you play a lot of hands your variance is going to be higher. If you play tight, your variance will be lower. It depends on your style of play. I am sure some are steady winners playing tight and some are winning playing many more hands.

[bholdr]

Hey BRL:

i personally think that game selection is the most important factor to consider when trying to figure out weather your variance is normal or not. in a tight-passive stud/8 game, 20BB swings should be very uncommon, but in a loose aggressive game (my personal favroite) 20BB/hour is nothing at all, given that it will be common to put in 10 or more BB in a hand.

it depends on your style, too, a TAG player will have a higher variance than a weak-tight player, and playing loose, of course, will increse variance as well.

right now i'm in the middle of my worst-ever slide at stud/8- it all started right after i won the 2+2 sng on sunday, and now i'm down about 70BB. yikes. i believe it's poor play combined with bad variance that doing it to me, so i am taking a break from stud and refocusing my energies on my holdem game, i'll be back in a week or so.


you may want to search for posts by bisonbison on how to calculate variance and SD, they might help you.

[bigredlemon]

I'll be sure to check him out.

On a side note, I've played a total of 7 stud SNGs (10+1) and have came exactly 4th each time. I don't even know if the stud payout is top 2 or top 3 lol. Maybe losing SNGs is my secret to winning [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Andy B]

20 BB is nothing, really. I had a skid of $7000 or so playing $30/60 a few years ago. I wasn't playing well at the time, though. Considering that you can lose 12-15 BB in a hand pretty easily (I've done it more times than I can count, a 20 BB slide shouldn't be of too much concern.

[SuitedBaby]

I am glad to see this about the loss per hand because my variance numbers in this game can exceed the 30bb session cap that is often advised for limit games. This is sometimes even when I feel I am playing appropraitely but just having one of those nights where second best with made hands rules.