Thoughs on the spread or total of the det/mia game tonight?

WackityWhiz · #1 05-23-2005, 06:38 PM

I honestly have no clue how this one is going to turn out, and no clue to the pace of the game. My instict tells me to stay away from the spread and just pick the under. Every total in detroit's last series was set WAY too high. Be interesting to see how it plays out tonight.

what do you guys think?

llabb · #2 05-23-2005, 07:07 PM

UNDER 181 looks like a great play to me.

Detroit and Miami both play great defense, both in the top 5 FG% defense for the regular season, and are #2 & 3 in the playoffs. #1 & #5 in lowest points allowed. Miami has had a long layoff and played without Shaq for the last couple games. They may need some time to get back in sync rhythm and chemistry-wise, and Shaq may not score as much, due to injury. As of an hour ago, Van Gundy wouldn't even commit to Shaq playing or not, although that may just be gamesmanship.

The 2 teams averaged a miserable 158 in their matchups during the season, with their highest ever output being 167. That means that with the Total set at 181, you get 23 points of room, for an average game, and still win the closest one by 14! I took the Under last night, and got 181.5.

Anyone else agree or disagree with this?

llabb · #3 05-23-2005, 07:13 PM

Oh, and I also like Detroit +4, as well as a small side play on the ML.

Miami's layoff and Shaq's injury hurt them coming into Game 1. Detroit controlled the pace of the regular season games. Wade is awesome and will win them some games, like their second reg-season matchup when he scored a triple-double. But when Detroit locks down, they can contain him, such as the third reg-season matchup, when he fouled out with only 5 points.

Detroit crushed a similar Lakers team last year. Miami this year is better than that, but Det still looks like the better team to me.

For the series, I took Detroit at +130, with an additional tiny side play on Det in 6 at +390.

WackityWhiz · #4 05-23-2005, 08:05 PM

I decided to make a decent sized bet on the over (3 units). I got it at 179.5 and I changed my thoughts on this being an under game. Iuno why, just a gut feeling.

C'mon double overtime! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Kevroc · #5 05-23-2005, 08:25 PM

got Heat in sweep at +1100

WackityWhiz · #6 05-23-2005, 09:11 PM

i just hope they get it to a decent number so I can buy back my dumb over bet at halftime. This game is gonna be under most likely.

heropretend · #7 05-23-2005, 09:14 PM

yep, under at halftime whatever it is.

WackityWhiz · #8 05-23-2005, 09:22 PM

I can't risk 6.5 units with a chance of getting middled by 3.5 pts... I guess I'll just have to hope for the best in the 2nd half. So many easy missed shots it seemed like... the over is not out of the question.. I just wish I was on the other side of it [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

heropretend · #9 05-23-2005, 09:23 PM

thus far:
fast enough pace, but low scoring throughout. as i think collins or someone mentioned the game's 2 worst free throw shooters allow each team the advantage of getting set in defense. bodes well for the under scores if they stay in high 170s.

i like detroit. i think the quality of the miami's bench has surprised, but they really haven't faced a defense as skilled and solid as the detroit d. one of my favorite columnists, bill simmons, commented on e. jones, d. jones, dooling, etc probably contributing nothing in crunch time during big games. none of the wash or nj games were big games, we'll see how they do when put to the test.

heropretend · #10 05-23-2005, 09:26 PM

yeah nevermind my 2nd half under comment. but i am playing det. +105 +2.5