how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?

Newt_Buggs · #1 05-22-2005, 05:27 AM

I just don't know what to say
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t795)
UTG (t6095)
Button (t870)
SB (t2240)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Button raises to t160, SB calls t135, Hero raises to t795 (All-In), Button folds, SB calls t635.

Flop: (t1750) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t1750) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t1750) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t1750

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9s Jh (one pair, aces).
SB has 3d 3c (two pair, aces and threes).
Outcome: SB wins t1750. 

two questions:
1. is this usually a push with any two? It looks like the button is on a steal and the SB is trying to sneak in with a hand that he shouldn't be playing. The small blind in there will make it even harder for the button to call a push and the small blind most likely does not have a hand that he wants to risk his entire stack with.

2. How do I interpret these results? Just shrug and move on or does this show that pushing here was wrong?

Freudian · #2 05-22-2005, 05:31 AM

I don't like pushing marginal hands on the bubble when someone raised, especially when blinds are this small. That he isn't pushing for 16xBB shouldn't be interpreted as him not liking his hand.

DasLeben · #3 05-22-2005, 05:32 AM

I'm not sure I can accurately answer all your questions, but I can certainly answer this one:

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how do I evaluate someone elses stupidity?

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I don't really evaluate. I just think that everyone at my table other than me is an idiot. No really, it works. Try it! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

curtains · #4 05-22-2005, 05:33 AM

I would not push, people are crazy. I know the reward is greater but I always prefer to push against zero action (assuming a weak hand like yours) than two people who have shown that they at least like their hand a little bit. For these guys, liking their hand a "little bit" can mean they simply aren't going to fold for another 600 chips especially when the SB can come up with excuses about how he has a big stack, and theres 160 dead money from the button and so on.

Also there is the reasonable chance that button busts or becomes crippled this hand if you fold.

Atropos · #5 05-22-2005, 05:36 AM

With 25/50 blinds I do not like this play at all, because pushes are rare and you cannot say that buttons hand is weak because he raised 3BB. How it would be with 50/100 blinds I dont know.
It seems the forum's wisdom ends at the point when limpers/raisers/coldcallers are involved and not just simple pushes/calls. I can only say I dont like your play, but I dont know how to prove this mathematically.

Nick B. · #6 05-22-2005, 05:34 AM

Who is being stupid here besides yourself? The pot is 370 before you pushed. You can push 635 more, giving 1.6-1 odds on your all in. You are the shortstack, you have a target on your head from the big stacks which means you probably need a better hand to make this play.

treeofwisdom7 · #7 05-22-2005, 05:40 AM

i think everyone on this thread is right..
maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal your blind with J9 oh wait he would have you beat
maybe... you were thinking he was trying to steal with AJ -- oh wait he still has you beat. ok ok maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with K9 such a bad hand right . ehhhh he still has you beat.

maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with 33 hey! correct.. just let him steal here and if you gotta just call.

Newt_Buggs · #8 05-22-2005, 03:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think everyone on this thread is right..
maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal your blind with J9 oh wait he would have you beat
maybe... you were thinking he was trying to steal with AJ -- oh wait he still has you beat. ok ok maybe you were thinking he was trying to steal with K9 such a bad hand right . ehhhh he still has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]
Obviously I don't think that J8 is the best hand, I just read both players (see first post) as weak, especially since I would have expected this player to raise smaller if he wanted a call.

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I dont understand how you could rely too much on numbers in a situation like this. You are all-in preflop, there are no decisions to be made, you dont have a specific read other than hand ranges etc... I dont see how this is different than calling a flush-draw. At the tables the intuitive solution is better, because you cant calculate it.

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you can't rely on numbers here because there are too many variables. You can't assign exact numbers to the % of the time that they will call and what hands they will call with.

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Personally, I think that this move is premature. You've got plenty of chips, just relax and play poker for a while

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I don't see how this applys, If there are dead chips in the middle I am taking them regardless. The fact that this is the bubble and that I have time only means that I have to be more sure of my decision to make it.

However, after reading everyones responses and looking back over the hand, I don't think that I was confident enough in this situation to make this play. 30 minutes at a table while multitabeling is not enough time to get a strong enough read on both players to make this move. In the future I believe that I would have to be almost positive that the button is weak and that the SB is loose enough to call here with a weak hand, tight enough to fold this hand to a push, and aggressive enough to raise a hand that he would want to be all in with. I obviously misevaluated the SB and paid for it.

btw, how would you guys have played the SBs hand? Push because the button is afraid of getting busted on the bubble?

pooh74 · #9 05-23-2005, 11:25 AM

Your play here is based almost entirely on fold equity with a hand like this. The problem is that you have too little.

SB made an ok call IMO. his call of button's raise is horrendous, but after YOU push and button folds, he's getting sweet odds and probably shouldnt lay this down (although he IS stupid for being in this situation in the first place).

IOW, he somehow calls button's raise hoping to see a set (who knows what he's thinking) and would most likely fold if button called your push...but given button folds, he has less respect for your push and given the odds is coming along.

with your stack size, you have to choose a better spot here...you chose a bad spot for this steal and there are much better situations to get your $ in. (i.e. folded to you or w/ a better hand).

I always want to assume I have good chunck of FE and here I would assume I have VERY little and looking at my cards this play just wont make sense to me.

kyro · #10 05-23-2005, 11:37 AM

The magnitude of SB's poor play doesn't decrease the magnitude of yours. You're trying to justify your play by saying SB's was worse. While I'll agree SB made a bad play, yours wasn't much better, for the same reasons already presented.