Marginal River Value Bet

theBruiser500 · #1 05-22-2005, 01:08 AM

SB is a little on LAG side but nothing special. How do you like every street?

PokerStars 30/60 Hold'em (6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets, SB raises, Hero 3-bets, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (8.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

James282 · #2 05-22-2005, 01:22 AM

Hey Bruiser, not marginal.
-James

theBruiser500 · #3 05-22-2005, 02:06 AM

Hey james I was just thinking about it in the shwoer and not only do i think it's marginal, i think a river value bet is incorrect! Let's say SB calls with J8s, J9s, JTo-AJo, and 22-TT. That is

J8s - 2 combos, J9s - 2 combos
JT-AJo - 32 combos

22 - 3 combos (55 we will discount because he c/r turn)
33,44, 66, 88-TT -36 combos

He could have a 7, I think he raises the turn but there is a chance like 25% he waits until river to raise. AJo he probably caps flop or raises turn so those kind of cancel each other out. So 38 combos I beat, 2 I tie and 32 I lose too. A decent percent of the time he will fold to my river bet with a weak poker pair so it seems close, but a fold.

theBruiser500 · #4 05-22-2005, 02:09 AM

Actually 2 of those combos J9s and J8s make a flush. Plus there is a chance he had a gutshot draw of some sort and backdoors that flush. Also there is a chance he makes a wacky river c/r and makes me fold the best hand, that is kind of small though, but just wanted to note it for the sake of completnes.

theBruiser500 · #5 05-22-2005, 02:10 AM

And my friend is pointing out, I think correctly that my flop 3 bet and turn bet are enough to scare some pocket pairs away fairly often. I like river check.

shemp · #6 05-22-2005, 02:11 AM

If this is not an obvious bet, then you should be torching this person for other reasons.

theBruiser500 · #7 05-22-2005, 02:12 AM

Shemp, how can you argue with my mathetmatical analysis?

shemp · #8 05-22-2005, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Shemp, how can you argue with my mathetmatical analysis?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your assumptions are wrong.

theBruiser500 · #9 05-22-2005, 02:15 AM

Feel free to eleborate. Also anyone disagree with preflop, flop or turn line?

James282 · #10 05-22-2005, 02:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey james I was just thinking about it in the shwoer and not only do i think it's marginal, i think a river value bet is incorrect! Let's say SB calls with J8s, J9s, JTo-AJo, and 22-TT. That is

J8s - 2 combos, J9s - 2 combos
JT-AJo - 32 combos

22 - 3 combos (55 we will discount because he c/r turn)
33,44, 66, 88-TT -36 combos

He could have a 7, I think he raises the turn but there is a chance like 25% he waits until river to raise. AJo he probably caps flop or raises turn so those kind of cancel each other out. So 38 combos I beat, 2 I tie and 32 I lose too. A decent percent of the time he will fold to my river bet with a weak poker pair so it seems close, but a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your range is too small. People will pay off with an ace. They'll pay off with A5 or A2 for sure. He has not given you any reason to think he is a good player by cold calling out of the SB preflop, so why respect him now?

A wise man once said, on the river, all you can do is hand them the rope and let them decide whether or not they want to hang themselves(paraphrased!). A tough part about transitioning from no-limit to limit is that you must value bet WAY more. This is a situation I would always bet against an unknown.
-James

EDIT: Once players like this get to the river with a pocket pair, they will fold it under no circumstances. Re-evaluate your calcuations with that number being 0%.
-James