Rag War II (for Chesspain)

Fnord · #1 05-22-2005, 12:05 AM

Chesspain made a similar post earlier this week, but I didn't see a really good answer. Similar situation as his post, only this time I have a piece.

My opponent here is a pretty typical fish, plays too many hands for a limp, calls too much and is pretty predictable even when he thinks he's being deceptive.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Fnord is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, Fnord checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets, Fnord insta-raises, MP2 thinks... 3-bets, Fnord calls.

Turn: (4.16 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets, Fnord raises, MP2 calls.

River: (8.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Fnord bets, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 10.16 BB

CallMeIshmael · #2 05-22-2005, 12:08 AM

What are you doing if the turn blanks?

Fnord · #3 05-22-2005, 12:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What are you doing if the turn blanks?

[/ QUOTE ]

check/fold

CallMeIshmael · #4 05-22-2005, 12:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
check/fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I think a pretty stong case can be made to fold the flop.

You getting 7.33-1, on an 8.4-1 shot.

This means that he has to give you a free look at the river quite a bit for the flop call to be +EV.

Fnord · #5 05-22-2005, 12:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You getting 7.33-1, on an 8.4-1 shot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds, the chance he checks behind on the turn and table image should cover the gap. Meh... maybe not... Anyone else wanna chime in. I think situations like this are seriously under-represented in forum discussions.

CallMeIshmael · #6 05-22-2005, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds, the chance he checks behind on the turn and table image should cover the gap. Meh... maybe not... Anyone else wanna chime in. I think situations like this are seriously under-represented in forum discussions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree totally.

I am going to bed now, but I will repost again tomrrow (if I forget, bump it/PM me because I want to read it again)

Also.. FWIW, I think his check behind frequency is more important than implied odds here, becauese we dont want to count on implieds for that much when 3 of our outs (2s) arent exactly a sure fire winning hand.

Nick C · #7 05-22-2005, 01:04 AM

Was MP2 the bet-if-checked-to type?

If he wasn't, I think I'd prefer just to lead the flop.

CallMeIshmael · #8 05-22-2005, 01:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Was MP2 the bet-if-checked-to type?

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I find I am bet into so often here (1 limper - even a late limper) vs the BB that I check essentially of of my made hands.

brettbrettr · #9 05-22-2005, 01:12 AM

I assume you're folding the turn u/i?

Fnord · #10 05-22-2005, 01:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he wasn't, I think I'd prefer just to lead the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to bet/fold flops like this, but just like Ishmael, I found that you pretty much always draw an auto-bet. So now my line is to check/raise any piece. Quite often the c/r or the follow-up turn bet takes it down. The alternative is to bluff lots of these flops, but that often gets me into trouble and doesn't really exploit most of my opponent's habbit of calling too darn much. Sound reasoning?