Preflop steal with Q9 gone wrong - continue on flop?

Mad Genius1 · #1 05-20-2005, 07:00 PM

Down to 12 in $55 + rebuy tourney on Stars. Top 18 make the money so we are already ITM. I had been playing fairly tight up to this point, and more importantly the entire table was very tight, so I thought this might be a decent spot to steal from UTG. Once SB calls and checks flop, should I be continuing my aggressive play and move in, or check behind?

PokerStars Game #1734820613: Tournament #7944130, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (2000/4000) - 2005/05/20 - 18:48:27 (ET)
Table '7944130 5' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: azone45 (32450 in chips)
Seat 2: MVTh (132551 in chips)
Seat 3: JRJ69 (44029 in chips)
Seat 4: tribalistas (44140 in chips)
Seat 5: Genius28 (39518 in chips)
Seat 6: Leoparden (36283 in chips)
azone45: posts the ante 200
MVTh: posts the ante 200
JRJ69: posts the ante 200
tribalistas: posts the ante 200
Genius28: posts the ante 200
Leoparden: posts the ante 200
JRJ69: posts small blind 2000
tribalistas: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Genius28 [Qd 9d]
Genius28: raises 7000 to 11000
Leoparden: folds
azone45: folds
MVTh: folds
JRJ69: calls 9000
tribalistas: folds
*** FLOP *** [As Js Th]
JRJ69: checks
Genius28: bets 28318 and is all-in

Results to come.

locutus2002 · #2 05-20-2005, 07:42 PM

I probably check and fold here. This is a terrible flop for you because I can't imagine villain calling this raise OOP and missing this flop.

I think your about 3:1 against in the hand, so if you push you have to make villain fold 1/2 the time.

If villain plays 9To or better here, then every one of villain's hand has at least a pair with the exception of K9,Q9.
I dropped the pairs because I don't think villain plays them like this. If villains hands don't include a 9 then your in much worse shape.

AKs-A9s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-J9s, T9s, AKo-A9o, KQo-K9o, QJo-Q9o, JTo-J9o, T9o.

If villain folds half the range to a push it includes a JQ with a gutshot, and probably a backdoor. That's alot of hand to get him to laydown.

I look at this flop, check behind and prey for the 8 of diamonds.
[img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

MLG · #3 05-20-2005, 07:47 PM

its pretty arbitrary to not include 66/77/88, but put in 109o, J9o, J9s and such. It seems like you're structuring the hands to be the worst possible range.

sdplayerb · #4 05-20-2005, 08:01 PM

i pushin on this openended with all the dead money already out there.
If he had an A, he really should bet this with all the draws out there, and he has to have an A to call (or a set/two pair)...so you have a lot of folding equity.
Between the FE, the dead money and the good draw, i push it all in.

locutus2002 · #5 05-20-2005, 08:10 PM

I am assuming a conservative range. But villain has no reason to confront hero from the SB OOP. I've also assumed that hero is putting up 1 to win 1 in the pot but its a little higher.

If you put 66-88 back in you put QQ-AA. (lets be fair and say if you flat call with 66-88 you flat call with AA-QQ)
You only go up to 30% in the hand, from 25%. Lets say you only have to get him to laydown 40% of the time. The expanded range has about 300 hands. You have to make him laydown 40% X 300 hands roughly 120 hands. Eyeballs around QT.
Bottom Pair with a gutshot and a backdoor 1/2 the time. Its a tougher call.

locutus2002 · #6 05-20-2005, 08:14 PM

If you take out 9T,9J it doesn't change much <(~30%).

MLG · #7 05-20-2005, 08:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am assuming a conservative range. But villain has no reason to confront hero from the SB OOP......
If you put 66-88 back in you put QQ-AA. (lets be fair and say if you flat call with 66-88 you flat call with AA-QQ)

[/ QUOTE ]

You say its conservative, but you include 109o, I don't get it. I'm sorry, but generally these assumptions are just wrong. Your math is good, but you are selecting unrealistic ranges.

MLG · #8 05-20-2005, 08:24 PM

he never pushes preflop with AK/AQ. What the hell happens with JJ/1010/99 here? Are you saying he always pushes those preflop so you can never have them now?

kuro · #9 05-20-2005, 08:33 PM

Villain's tight. So Q9 is probably 2:1 dog vs. the range villain defends with rather than 3:1. I think pushing the flop is probably right given pot odds & folding equity, but I'm over aggressive on the bubble.

locutus2002 · #10 05-20-2005, 08:38 PM

OK give me a range you like for SB to make this call OOP in this situation.

I actually would not include any 9 in the hand, and I certainly wouldn't come into this pot without a raise with any pair OOP with the exception of AA and KK. Then the numbers get unreasonable for hero.