99 Mid position

[greenroom1]

$30+3 PP MTT Tourney

313 Players

SB (780)
BB (1530)
UTG (1375)
UTG+1 (3750)
MP1 (5217)
Hero (980)
Villian (1135)
CO (2435)
Button (563)


Hero has been playing tight aggressive
Villian is all over the place. He had 3400 in chips and made a bad call with JJ and one over card. He had been up and down.


Blinds 25/50

Folded to Hero with

9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Raises to 175

Villian moves all in

Folded to Hero

I called thinking it was a 55/45 coin flip. I was down to about 800 in chips after the raise.

Villian had A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flop

10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I can't remember what came after that, but it wasn't two 9s.
Should I have folded or taken the coin flip.

[damn_river]

I would say u should ve folded w/o any information on this guy. Having seen he had at, calling was a good play.

dR

[greenroom1]

I had some info on him. I am new at MTTs and have mostly been playing SNGs. He was loose agressive and played a lot of hands. He doubled up on a bad beat against a solid player. I figured he would have me beat with a higher pair about 20% of the time. 50% of the time he would hold high cards AK-A10, or even KQ-K10 in a loose aggressive. The other 30% of the time he would push with 88-55 (even 22 with some of these guys) and I would be a favorite. Doing the math the coin flip seems more in my favor.

30% Win 4:1 favorite
50% Coin Flip 11:10
20% dog 1:4 underdog

815 to call all in
1235 in the pot
pot odds: 3:2



50% of the time coin flip = .28
30% 4:1 favorite = .25
20% 1:4 underdog = .04

Win rate 56%

pot odds 3:2

EV 56%(2055)-44%(815)= +796

I think the math is correct.

If the Villian were tighter I think there would have been a better chance he had an overpair. He wouldn't have raised with 88 or less. He might have AK-AQs. I would have folded here.

All the math and statistics aside. You are faced with a coin flip that pays 3 to 2. Do you take this step at this place in a tourney, or fold and wait for a safer opportunity. The blinds were only 25/50 with about 5 minutes left. I wouldn't last much longer than 2 more levels. So do you play tight and hope for a better starting hand and fold or call the bet and gamble.