What's this about pot equity?

badplayer · #1 05-19-2005, 02:37 AM

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB raises, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, CO checks, Hero checks (?).

I should know better.

Turn: (6 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, CO calls, Hero calls (?), SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Would this be a good time to raise?

River: (11 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, CO calls, Hero calls (???), BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

I know I'm a moron for calling. Guess I had the "pot is too big to fold" mentality. Doesn't really work here, does it?

Final Pot: 15 BB

aK13 · #2 05-19-2005, 02:41 AM

Bet flop. Hand plays differently from there.

River call needs to be good 1/15 times against 5 players -- I'm thinking this is pretty borderline.

ClaytonN · #3 05-19-2005, 02:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet flop. Hand plays differently from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

Malachii · #4 05-19-2005, 02:42 AM

Yes, you should bet the flop because you have a solid draw which will come in 35% of the time and with a board that coordinated, you'll get two or more calls easily.

Is the turn a raise? I would to improve my winning chances if I hit an ace, but I know others on this forum who would advise a call.

Is the river a call? Absolutely. You have top pair! You're not a moron at all.

moot · #5 05-19-2005, 02:45 AM

Bet this flop in a heartbeat. If you're check-raised you should probably jam it up if there are at least a couple people in (pump that equity edge).

On the turn if it's checked to you then you should probably bet regardless. First of all, if there are more than 3 people you have an equity edge. Secondly, even if they are not, sometimes you'd love for someone to fold a higher Ax hand that might free up outs on the river (though if you got check-raised on the flop your aces out might not be good anyway).

If the turn is bet to you depending on where the bet comes from you should either raise or call. If you have a chance to trap a number of players then raise. Also, raising may sometimes buy you a couple aces outs, maybe. Calling is probably fine if the bet comes close to your right (I don't think the ace outs are worth the raise and in most cases you'd like as many players as possible to stick around)

So sometimes it might be okay to take a free card, though many times you'll want to bet the turn.

The way you played it I don't hate the river call. You're saying it was bad because you didn't win the hand. But will you win 1 out of 14 times? I think so.

benkath1 · #6 05-19-2005, 09:51 AM

This is hard for me to respond to, since you didn't bet the flop. I guess you could raise the turn for some informantion, but if you are 3 bet, do you think you are behind a str8? Then the ace on the river is useless.

Remember, flopping a 4 flush, you will hit about 33%. Play em fast and hard early.

MrWookie47 · #7 05-19-2005, 09:58 AM

Raising "for information" is terrible. Hero has all the information he needs: he's behind, and his A outs are questionable at best. Only raise if you hate money.

If "information," is your primary or only reasoning for betting or raising, you are making a mistake, even if betting or raising in that situation would be correct.

itsmesteve · #8 05-19-2005, 10:00 AM

i know you know to bet the flop . . . as another poster said, your draw comes in 33% of the time. you have six players who will almost all undoubtedly call one small bet. 2 of those BELONG TO YOU! this is where a TON of your money comes from in micros games. . . getting paid off when you hit a draw.

Given how you played it, i would raise the turn.
1. Knock players out.
2. Possible free showdown when you don't improve.

Meech · #9 05-19-2005, 10:36 AM

I'll take a stab at this...

Pot equity is the relationship between the percentage of time your draw will hit and win -vs- the percentage of the pot you are contributing. Pot Odds tell you when you should continue a draw, or call. Pot Equity tells you when you should pump a draw, or bet/raise.

Your draw will come in ~19% on the next card, ~35% on the next two. You are contributing 1/6 or ~16% to the pot. Even with one card to come (assuming that your flush would be good) you earn money by betting (again assuming everybody calls). With two cards to come, 6 in the pot, checked around to you -- you definately will earn money over the long run by pumping the draw here.

The way you played it, I'd call the turn because I don't want to blow out the field. My Ace high no kicker is almost surely no good here. If I hit my flush, I'd like the three people behind me in the pot.

River overcall I don't like. I know the old "don't fold on the river for 1 bet" line. But I'm not sure your TPNK is good enough here to be +EV and you aren't closing the action. Granted nobody has really shown any agression here, so perhaps it's more borderline than my initial take. But with 5 people still in the pot...

If you bet the flop, the whole hand plays differently.