BB special fills up - played right?

[nycplayer]

I am curious whether I played this hand right, or I just got extremely lucky, or both.

Live $1-2 game, 10 players, table seems mostly weak-tight, with a lot of cheap flops for limpers. Villain is one of two players at the table I am reasonably concerned about.

I have about $225, villain has around $400, everyone else from $80 - $200


Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG limps, 3 folds, Villain limps, limp, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.


Flop: ($10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, Villain bets $10, fold, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG folds.
I put Villain on a flush draw, SB - not sure, maybe QJ/QT


Turn: ($40) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, Villain raises to $50, SB folds, Hero calls $30
I figure he hasn't made his draw and my set is good. I want to represent a flush draw here, maybe the SB will call.

River: ($140) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets all-in for about $165, Villain calls.
I'm not sure the all-in was a good move, but I wanted to maximize the payoff, and I figured he'd caught his flush and would call. He called so fast, I think he must've had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but he didn't show.

Final Pot: $470

Opinions?

[nycplayer]

bump

[NYCNative]

I don't smoothcall the flop bet, I raise. Sure you might scare off the people with a Queen but if anyone limped with a suited A2, you're in trouble. If a Queen pops up, you're in trouble. If you don't get the boat, you're in trouble. If someone has pocket Queens, you're already toast.

Too bad villain didn't reveal... You could have seen what he was chasing... You could have made him but that would have made him even more angry.

[nycplayer]

I figured pocket queens would have been worth a pre-flop raise, so I wasn't really worried about that. But I was a little worried about A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or maybe A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], since he raised me on the turn. But I think something like A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is more likely, since he called my all-in very fast with a flush on the board, and I was figuring he put me on the same draw, but lower.
Calling the turn raise was borderline for me, but I thought it more likely that he was on the draw or two pair, rather than higher trips, and any trips is a hard laydown for me. Of course, any heart other than a 3 on the river would have been very scary.

[crazygoose]

I don't think slowplaying that hand is a good idea. I raise the flop to 40 and fold to a reraise. If you put him on a flush draw why did you give him an unimpeded chance to hit? I am reraising that turn while I still have the best hand.

[nycplayer]

I am not sure about that. On the flop, I am a huge favorite to have the best hand - around 95%, I think. If he is playing A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], which I think is his likely flush draw, then he has a slightly better chance of outdrawing me.

He makes better than my trips on the turn about 19%, and by the river it is about 37%.
Odds that I improve to a full house or better are 15% and 33%.

However - if the turn is a blank, I have more outs than he does - he has 9 hearts, I have 1 deuce, 3 queens, 3 sixes, and 3 threes, for 10 outs. I am 4 to 1 to win at this point.

Say I reraise all-in on the turn and take it down - there is $110 in the pot, and he doesn't have odds to call, but say 10% he makes a bad call, then:
My EV is (0.9 * 78) + (0.1 * ((0.8 * 245) + (0.2 * -225))) = $85

If I reraise to $100, I give him odds to call but I'll have advertised my trips, and he won't bet or call the river without the flush. If I give a 10% chance of a bad fold, then my EV is
(0.9 * (((7 / 46) * -112) + ((2 / 46) * 245) + ((37 / 46) * 128))) + (0.1 * 78) = $95

However, If I flat call:
there are 7 cards (hearts) that beat me - and I check-fold.
There are 36 cards that he will fold to a strong river bet.
And there are 3 cards (3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) that he will call an all-in bet and lose with.
((7 / 46) * -62) + ((3 / 46) * 245) + ((36 / 46) * 128) = $106

So after some analysis, I think I did play it right, even though I was not doing the math, and just playing instinctively.

[iceman5]

Its much more likely that Villian has the QJ and SB has the flush draw.

You'll win much more money in the long run with this type hand if you lead out instead of check/calling.

If you lead out, theres a fair chance you'll get raised by a good Q.