K4o HU vs 95 VPIPer.

btspider · #1 05-17-2005, 11:56 PM

This wasn't your everyday hand. What do you think.

Villian is extremely goofy, so he's my top table of the 4 I'm playing. After 30 hands, he's 95 VPIP, 3 PFR. Postflop (for all of 30 hands), he's been passive/aggressive mix. He makes lots of loose calls, but HU will donkbet, bluff raise, bluff check-raise at random. I only saw him 3-bet once, and he had slowplayed rockets (he didn't raise PF) vs my well played backdoor flush [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (1.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero calls.

River: (3.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets....

I will call a raise. If the 4 did not drop, I would have check-called since I cannot survive a river raise.

Thoughts?

(i apologize to ent and shill for still bonus clearing at 1/2.. i'll move back up soon. promise!)

random additional stats over a ridiculous small sample size (meaningless, but goofy is hard to describe):
flop AF: .29
turn AF: 1.0
river AF: 2.2
WSF: 40
W$SD: 40
WtSD: 67
BB/100: -80

cold_cash · #2 05-18-2005, 12:00 AM

The pot's awful small on the turn; I'd probably just roll over and let him have it. I just don't like risking 2 to win 3.

btspider · #3 05-18-2005, 12:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The pot's awful small on the turn; I'd probably just roll over and let him have it. I just don't like risking 2 to win 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

even with the paired board? i was probably folding otherwise. he's got any two when i check the turn. his goofiness made me think he'd bet nearly all of those hands on the turn.. which is why i didn't bet the turn.

KingOtter · #4 05-18-2005, 12:05 AM

There's a good chance you're ahead... his bets mean nothing by your read so it is nearly impossible to put him on any type of hand.

Only real risk is a higher pocket pair. He probably would have bet a T on the flop if he had one.

Check/call seems better, though. With a check/call you only have to be good 20% (4.25 to 1) of the time. With the bet/call a raise you have to be good about 28% of the time (about 5.25 to 2).

KO

Kumubou · #5 05-18-2005, 12:31 AM

Am I the only one who raises this pre-flop? Against a completely random hand (which seems to be the case), you have the best hand more often than not. Also, it's suitable punishment for open-limping on the button like that (don't limp on my blinds, bith!) With the raise, I would throw out a continuation bet on the flop regardless of what flops, hoping that he folds under pressure, or to give him the chance to bluff-donk. That is probably uber-LAG and rampant chip spewing, though.

The turn is frustrating. If you did not think he had a hand on the flop, he did not pick up anything on the turn -- how often are you ahead here? Grrawar I suck heads up, I don't know if this should be called down or folded or what. The easy answer here is to fold, if for no other reason than the fact that this pot is tiny; you can pick a better spot to go to war.

-K

btspider · #6 05-18-2005, 12:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one who raises this pre-flop? Against a completely random hand (which seems to be the case), you have the best hand more often than not. Also, it's suitable punishment for open-limping on the button like that (don't limp on my blinds, bith!) With the raise, I would throw out a continuation bet on the flop regardless of what flops, hoping that he folds under pressure, or to give him the chance to bluff-donk. That is probably uber-LAG and rampant chip spewing, though.

The turn is frustrating. If you did not think he had a hand on the flop, he did not pick up anything on the turn -- how often are you ahead here? Grrawar I suck heads up, I don't know if this should be called down or folded or what. The easy answer here is to fold, if for no other reason than the fact that this pot is tiny; you can pick a better spot to go to war.

-K

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good thoughts. my devil's advocate responses to make you think some more would be:

1. i am out of position. this is a big hurdle to overcome against this opponent. i'd like a PFR much more if he was the SB and open completed. i really need to reread the section, but i believe HEPFAP discusses a concept of not raising marginal PF hands if you are certain your opponent will call.. and that was with position i believe.

2. auto-betting the flop (i know you said only after a PFR), puts me in a tough turn situation if called.. and he does call a lot on the flop. a PFR sort of commits me to auto-betting the flop. if I don't PFR, i can pick my spots for the flop. sort of recycling your argument, not PFR'ing keeps the pot tiny, so its easier for me to ditch my hand on flops I don't like. he'll also be making a mistake by calling with a 6 outer if I catch a 4.

3. yes the pot is tiny, however, i have 3 tight opponents on my left (not sure if i've said this yet), and have been isolating this guy like mad. a marginal, but frequent, situation needs to be fought over if its marginal in my favor. possibly 70% of the hands i played postflop at this table were HU with this guy after the first few orbits. given his flop check behind, i need to play poker if i think i'm in a marginally +EV situation.

Entity · #7 05-18-2005, 01:08 AM

Hey spider,

If I decided to not bet this flop, I would definitely just lead the turn.

The river bet is fine but if he'll bluff a lot...well, you know.

Rob

btspider · #8 05-18-2005, 01:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hey spider,

If I decided to not bet this flop, I would definitely just lead the turn.

The river bet is fine but if he'll bluff a lot...well, you know.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

on this particular turn card, i thought he'd bet well over 80% of the time. does this change your opinion? i assume you fold to a raise.

my turn thought process was pretty much: top card paired.. he would have bet any pair on the flop. he could bluff raise the turn. i have showdown value and he'll simply bet the turn for me most of the time. i then reevaluated on the river. i bet since i thought he'd call with quite a large range and i felt very confident i had the best hand. yeah, he'd bluff bet some hands that he'd fold, but he may bluff raise as well. he was a goof, its tough to describe sometimes [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Entity · #9 05-18-2005, 01:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hey spider,

If I decided to not bet this flop, I would definitely just lead the turn.

The river bet is fine but if he'll bluff a lot...well, you know.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

on this particular turn card, i thought he'd bet well over 80% of the time. does this change your opinion? i assume you fold to a raise.

my turn thought process was pretty much: top card paired.. he would have bet any pair on the flop. he could bluff raise the turn. i have showdown value and he'll simply bet the turn for me most of the time. i then reevaluated on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your turn play and river play are incongruous.

If I'm betting the turn it's to make him fold a 6-outer. If I decide I want him to bluff because K-high is the best hand, I need to give him a chance to bluff the turn and river.

Rob

VBM · #10 05-18-2005, 01:20 AM

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If the 4 did not drop, I would have check-called since I cannot survive a river raise.

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the rationale being that he continues to bluff a lesser hand > 1/4.25 times? as you probably know, i'd have given up...hahah [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]