Lack of confidence abounds

[toots]

Ok, gergery tells us that I can probably make my way at stakes higher than .50/1.00 on Party. Indeed, I've dabbled in the full-table $1/2 games and done ok.

I just don't believe it.

So far, I have 4000 hands at $.50/1.00. I've grown my initial $50 to just over $190 in about a month. Not a stampede, but respectable, I guess.

Last night, I sat down and three-tabled at the usual $.50/1.00. Tables started out fairly tight but eventually loosened up.

All three started out pretty bad - few starting hands, and what hands I did get weren't that strong and ended up getting counterfeited or not making their draws. Throw in my quota of at least two ultra-donk plays per session and some dry decks, and before long, I'm down about $20.

I stuck with it, quit donking, and slowly started hitting hands. I went on to get a royal flush and quads in fairly rapid succession. I ended the session ahead on all three tables, with a net win rate in the 5-6 BB/100 range. Definitely not a bad winrate, even considering that I was at hyperfishy limits.

I ultimately quit all three because I noticed that once I got ahead, I was getting hesitant to play decent starting hands, for fear of undoing my winnings. I figured if I was too afraid to play good hands, my game was suffering, and it was time to quit, even though the tables were still on the upswing in their fish quotients.

I tried to reassure myself that I was playing decently enough, that my winnings so far can't entirely be luck alone, but then I started shooting myself in the foot with thoughts that I just got lucky with the royal flush and quads, even though neither of those hands paid very much.

This is what I suspect ultimately undermines my win rate and/or willingness to move up in limits. According to my scant 4000 hands, my variance is low enough and win rate high enough that I am bankrolled for $.50/1.00, but it just doesn't feel like it.

[GooperMC]

I am in the same boat and right; confidence is the sole reason I haven't moved up.

Lately my confidence has been building so I think that I am going to be ready to move up very soon.

He is what has been helping me:
1) Playing and winning every day. For a while I was only playing about 3 times a week and winning money almost every day has drastically helped.
2) I have set a $ goal, “I will move up to 1/2 when I hit X in winnings”. That has helped because I have watched almost daily progress toward that goal.
3) I have kept an excel spread sheet that graphs my winnings. Every time that I begin to question myself I can look at the graph and reaffirm how consistently I have been winning.

Good Luck.

[templar999]

toots,

seems to me like you're doing well. quadrupling your initial bankroll in a month is nothing to scoff at no matter what limit you're playing at. keep your spirits up. and whenever you come close to getting down, just remember this and i'm sure you will sleep well: the o/8 players you see are not nearly as bad as they seem; they're worse. having 4 cards instead of 2 just doubles (or would that be sixtuple?)their mistakes. if you need real proof, step into any b&m casino =)

cheers!

[Bremen]

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if you need real proof, step into any b&m casino =)


[/ QUOTE ]
If only the game wouldn't keep breaking on me after only 3 hours :0) Oh well, today I'm taking a shot at 5/10. Saw a kill pot on that Monday where 7 people saw the flop.

[toots]

[ QUOTE ]
if you need real proof, step into any b&m casino =)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, I know what you mean. The $5/10 at Foxwoods is about 10 times fishier than anything I've found online.

There, I'm somewhat confident.

[Mr_J]

Well I've played less than you, worked on my game less and am moving up to 3/6 after another 25bb of profit. Move up (whe you have the BR anyway)!!!

"I just don't believe it."

Is it really that hard to believe? Take another look at those tables...

"I ultimately quit all three because I noticed that once I got ahead, I was getting hesitant to play decent starting hands, for fear of undoing my winnings."

Put more cash into your BR if you can afford to. Sure you can get away with a 150bb BR, but that doesn't mean it's comfortable. Play with a BR you feel comfortable with.

[toots]

Yeah, I was sweating a $2/4 table on Party last night, and I couldn't believe the donking that was going on.

I woulda had to have had history's worst run of cards, ever, not to win that game.

Sadly, by the time I came to that conclusion, there was a waiting list.

[gergery]

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Ok, gergery tells us that…

[/ QUOTE ]

You should know better than to trust that donk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Throw in my quota of at least two ultra-donk plays per session and some dry decks, and before long, I'm down about $20…. Definitely not a bad winrate, even considering that I was at hyperfishy limits.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that your variance will be higher at the hyperfishy levels, because more people are playing, which means your chances of winning any given hand are lower.

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I just got lucky with the royal flush and quads

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, those were unusually favorable outcomes. But I’m sure you also got unlucky on plenty of hands in the session where Fishy sucked out on you. One way to think about it is that there is no luck in poker, just positive variance on some hands and negative variance on others, and occasionally extreme variance. Luck seems to imply that it’s unexpected, which might be true for any given hand but over many hands is obviously very expected.

[ QUOTE ]
I ultimately quit all three because I noticed that once I got ahead, I was getting hesitant to play decent starting hands, for fear of undoing my winnings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, if you’re not playing your best you should stop til you can play better, so I agree with Goop there, and identifying and acting on this is probably my own biggest personal leak.

I find it helpful to focus on decisions, not results, while playing. Sometimes I won’t look at my balance at the table for a long time while playing. If I take a bad beat, I try to ask, “were my decisions correct?” If I open twodimes and PTO to play back hands, sometimes hands I thought were totally unfair beats to me were ones where my opponents actually played correctly or at least not very incorrectly, and some hands I thought I clearly had odds to call were actually substantial mistakes. Others were where I made perfect decisions but got unlucky. Doing this can often help me reframe the situation and get back to playing with more confidence.

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My variance is low enough and win rate high enough that I am bankrolled for $.50/1.00, but it just doesn't feel like it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let’s say you need a bankroll of $100 to be fully funded at .25-.5. But you need a $200 bankroll to be fully funded at .5-1. You have $150, so what level are you funded for?
Answer: If you have the skills to beat both games, you are fully funded to play .5-1 until your bankroll drops to $100 .

[ QUOTE ]
So far, I have 4000 hands at $.50/1.00. I've grown my initial $50 to just over $190 in about a month. Not a stampede, but respectable, I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

140BB in 4000 hands is a winrate of 3.5BB/100, at a new level that you just started playing. I’d say that’s better than respectable. Hmm, maybe that gergery guy is onto something….

[GooperMC]

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Hmm, maybe that gergery guy is onto something….

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I don't know ... I heard someone that I believe call him a donk [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Ribbo]

Ok if you want my honest advice here it is.
Go play roulette, piss away $2000 betting on lucky 7.
Then sit down and play some poker. You will not care about the money one little bit because you will be pissed off and in shock at losing $2000. This is exactly the frame of mind you need to be in to play good poker. The money should not mean anything to you.