Playing tight tables

[theredpill5]

I can play loose tables very well but the tighter tables like the ones at Party Poker, I struggle with.

Most of the time today, when I had a set and would raise on flop or turn, everyone would fold. Well, it seems to me this would be good way to bluff as well if you can put the bettor on TPGK . Right ?

I'm not a good bluffer and I rarely bluff. I just need to hone these skills if I am to be successful at poker. Those of you who bluff. I assume you target a tight player and one capable of making a laydown ? I assume you would also seek to target someone who could be playing well. Someone who is frustrated or Tilting would not be a good candidate for a move ?

Also, do you seek to make the move in the best mathematical opportunity ? For example, what pot odds do you look for when deciding to the make move ?

I would say that the bigger the pot and smaller villain's bet then the greater chance of profitability your play would be ? Like if pot = $5. Villain bets $2. You put him on middle pair or Top pair weak kicker. You raised to $9, trying to represent a set or two pair. He needs to call $7. But pot is already $7 now so assuming only way for you to win is for him to fold, you have to win this at least 56 % of the time, right ? Since 9/16 = 56 %

[theredpill5]

Just thinking about some stuff to improve my game since my game is so boring as it is.

Suppose on the flop you get a flush draw. You play it passive on the flop just calling to see the turn.

You don't hit the flush on the turn. Board isn't paired and you think Villain has TPGK .

Pot = $7 after villain bets.

You raise to $20 or about 3x size of pot.

Am I correct in thinking that as long as villain folds this about 50 % of the time or more. This is a + EV play because I still am going to hit this flush about 20 % of the time. I did some calculations and I figured this to be + EV. Anyone mathematically inclined care to figure this as well ? I figured that if it was a straight bluff and no possiblility to win, I have to win this 75 % of the time but then I have 20 % chance to win with the flush so villain only needs to fold 55 % of the time or 1/2. Is that correct ?

Do you think a tight player could fold TPTK 50 % or more of the time to a 3x pot raise on the turn ?

[PinkSteel]

Let's make a couple of other (probably obvious) assumptions to flesh it out:
* If villain calls and you make your flush you win, period
* If villain calls and you miss your flush you lose, period
* Your $20 raise will put villain exactly all-in, no river bet possible

Then your total EV is going to be $7 when he folds, $20 when you hit and -$20 when you miss, right?

EV = $7 * (Fold%) + (1 - Fold%)( $20 * Flush% - $20 * ( 1 - Flush% ) )

If we assume Flush% is about 20%, and set EV = 0, I get that Fold% is 0.63, so he has to fold more than 63% of the time for +EV.

Now enters the beauty of semi-bluffing, however. Because if your bet does NOT put one of you all-in, then it may well have misled your opponent into thinking you aren't drawing to the flush, and you may get paid substantially better when you hit. Every $5 that Villain will call on the river looks to reduce the required folding % by about 5%, looks to me....

[theredpill5]

I'm not sure where you got the formula, Pink. Thanks for the calculation. I did it differently and I'm not even sure it was correct.

I figured out that if I was bluffing with no possibility to win like 3 5 o, Villain has to fold 75 % of the time if I'm betting $20 to win $7. Then I thought I could just subtract the 20 % possibility to win with flush from 75 = 55 % . This doesn't work ? I get approximately same answer but different method.

[ezratei]

I think that if you are playing the low NL tables at Partypoker (100 buyin or less) then trying to make money by pure bluffing (not semi-bluffing) is not a winning strategy.
If you find yourself at a very tight table (which shouldn't happen all too often) my best advice is to leave and pick another one. One of the best aspects of internet poker is the ease of table selection.

[PinkSteel]

Not exactly sure how you did yours, but I just went with the straight calculation for an expected value --

EV = Sum of all [ Prob. of an event * Net payoff from the event ]

So the three events possible are
* Opponent folds [with probability x%]
* Opponent calls and you hit [with probability (1-x%)*(flush-hit%)]
* Opponent calls and you miss [with probability (1-x%)*(flush-miss%)]

Then I twisted the equation once, to actually solve for x%, the percent required for opponent to fold. But you could just assume a % and use the straight EV formula --

Fold % = 55%

EV = 0.55 * $7 + (0.45 * 0.20) * $20 + (0.45 * 0.80) * -$20

I'm pretty sure that's a good calc; if I'm off base I'll appreciate a correction from someone.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose on the flop you get a flush draw. You play it passive on the flop just calling to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to vary your play why don't you try leading out for 2/3 size bet when you flop a FD?

[grimel]

[ QUOTE ]
I can play loose tables very well but the tighter tables like the ones at Party Poker, I struggle with.

Those of you who bluff. I assume you target a tight player and one capable of making a laydown ? I assume you would also seek to target someone who could be playing well. Someone who is frustrated or Tilting would not be a good candidate for a move ?

I would say that the bigger the pot and smaller villain's bet then the greater chance of profitability your play would be ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Where are the tight Party tables? Not at 100NL and below.

Target: yes, a good player who can think and has an idea what bets mean. You can bluff a tilting player; it depends on how he's tilting. A few people lose their nerve after a few dozen suckouts and fold to any bet without a set or better. If you find one he's a gold mine.

Pot size: I prefer making it a very bad risk to call. Again, it takes better players to push off "small" pots. Say the pot is $5 you bet $5, the villian is getting 2:1 on his money. Depending on the activity and board (you called checked from button preflop and flopped middle connected cards) your play has to make possible sense.

[TonySanDiego]

The Party $100 tables are getting downright rocklike. The table may be good for a bit, but soon, the usual suspects start to show up, and after a half hour, half the players at the table have less than %20 VIP, the action has slowed to a crawl, and any player not of at least semi pro caliber has vanished.

Party management are idiots. But the fools buying the IPO are bigger idiots.

[DoomSlice]

Generally pure-bluffing is not the way to go, even at tight tables, because you're eventually going to get trapped.

So you should usually stick with the semi-bluff, unless it's been checked around to you with only one person (or no people) left to act and you have a good feeling you can take it down (I usually fire a second barrel on the turn if it is a draw-heavy board).

So, now we're left with the semi-bluff, but when to use it?
1. I almost always use it as a raise or check-raise, and hardly ever bet out with it unless to buy a free card.

2. Use it when you sense weakness in your opponent(s). IE 1/4 pot bet followed by one or two cold calls. I will usually raise this as a semi-bluff, since the early bettor will fear getting trapped in a raise war and the late callers will respect the fact that you've just raised 2 or 3 people. If someone calls, you've still got outs.

3. When a preflop raiser makes an obvious continuation bet. Today I was playing a super tight table (tight weak to be precise) and opened in MP with 78 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I got repopped by the button and called to see a flop. Flop was 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I checked to the Button who bet full pot. Now this looked mighty suspicious, so I... min-raised him! Now unless he's got an Ace he's not going to be calling much futher, and I fully planned on firing again on the turn if he just called. Guess what, he folded and said he had KK. If he calls, you've still got outs.

4. Start raising the crap out of everything preflop. Not only will you start taking down a lot of blinds, but eventually you'll force them to loosen up.

Happy bluffing!