200BB Stacks, Huge Draw

[solid]

Hero here is probably viewed as a tight player, but has recently won a few pots from Villian where he called PF raises with pocketpairs and hit sets.

Villian is a decent player who thinks he's better than he is and overplays overpair too much.

UTG is nothing special, but no real reads.

What's a good line to take on this flop?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (8 handed) converter

UTG+1 ($670.30)
MP1 ($588)
Hero ($1969.90)
CO (Villian) ($1177.75)
Button ($566.25)
SB ($1116)
BB ($255.10)
UTG ($568.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $6, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO (Villian)/ raises to $48</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $42, Hero calls $30.


Flop: ($153) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Villian bets $105</font>,

[Logik]

This preflop re-raise should scream KK or AA, he wouldn't take this line with any PP that would make a set with the board, nor would he do this with AKs (I hope not).

So let's assume that he has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 45.4040 % [ 00.45 00.00 ] { AsAc }
Hand 2: 54.5960 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { 9s8s }

I'd call here and try to make your hand. I would then proceed to check and allow him to overplay his overpair. Worst case scenarios is he has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (you're still a favorite with your pair, but your flush draw is no good), or a set of tens (then you're only a 2:1 dog, and you can still bust him out if you hit a spade or make your straight).

I think you're in a damn good position to take his stack here-- what hands have you seen him make preflop re-raises with? I would only expect that from AA or KK from a solid player, so it looks like a textbook overplayed overpair.

[creedofhubris]

Two options:

1) Reraise allin. He'll call in a heartbeat with a big pair, but that's OK: you're about a 60% favorite if he's got an overpair with no spade, 55% favorite if he's got a spade. Drawback: high variance.

2) Just call. 1/3 of the deck improves you. Pot turn and river if you improve. Consider betting moderately ($100) on blank turn to see if you can get a "cheap" river. Drawbacks: he may be able to get away from a high pair if you improve. Also, he may price you out on the turn.

Curious to see what others think. I would tend to reraise allin, it's good for table image.

[Logik]

[ QUOTE ]
Two options:

1) Reraise allin. He'll call in a heartbeat with a big pair, but that's OK: you're about a 60% favorite if he's got an overpair with no spade, 55% favorite if he's got a spade. Drawback: high variance.

2) Just call. 1/3 of the deck improves you. Pot turn and river if you improve. Consider betting moderately ($100) on blank turn to see if you can get a "cheap" river. Drawbacks: he may be able to get away from a high pair if you improve. Also, he may price you out on the turn.

Curious to see what others think. I would tend to reraise allin, it's good for table image.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that any blocking bet would likely be re-raised by villian if he had overpair, as the OP said that villian tends to overplay this hand. I would call the flop, and check regardless of whether or not I made my hand-- the blocking bet will get re-raised, and quite likely any bet from a made hand (flush) might not get called, or at least not get raised. The weak check on the turn I think is a better line.

What hand do you put villian on with the re-raise preflop? Pot odds aren't great, but the implied odds are tremendous.

[creedofhubris]

Forgot to mention that if UTG sticks around in the hand you should just call rather than reraising IMO, take the tasty pot odds his presence will give you.

[solid]

Oh, my bad...UTG folded here. I should have included that in my original post.

Does anyone favor a lead in this situation (looking to get raised so you can push)?

[Logik]

No. There's no lead that could get raised that you could push without it being a gross overbet in this situation. Anything that would call would be exactly 50% to win (AxAs, KxKs, etc). I would enjoy making my hand before I did this-- a push would be an extremely high variance play. Are you adequately bankrolled to put all your chips for a ~1% advantage? I mean sure you have lots of folding equity and you can pick it up right now, but why?

I'd make my hand and allow villian to pay me off, or dump it on the turn if he priced you out that bad. Like I said, this call is purely in implied odds.

[emil3000]

You are wrong about the win%. Reraising all in is a good option against a villain that's not likely to give action when you hit your hand. In this case I agree that a call probably is best. In my opinion villain seems the type to put you on a lesser overpair when you call preflop and the flop. He can't get away from overpairs, so he doesn't think anyone else can either. I think you might even get a lot of action if the spade hits. An 8 or a nine would be better though, I think you might stack him with those cards.

A push isn't bad, but I like a call better.

[thabadguy]

I dont like the flop check, although people would disagree, I think a pot sized lead here would be much better. I like a lead, hope he raises and I push. I agree with cof that this is good for table image, a very good semibluff because, this could easily construed as a a set of 10's. If you lead and he calls, pot turn and river.
Another good line IMO would be to lead flop, call raise and push turn.

[fisherman112]

we seem to be ignoring that there's already 150 in the pot prior to villian's bet, so while the probable situation is a 55/45 race on the flop against AA or KK, you're getting a rather large overlay on a pot check raise here. It seems a little on the weak/tight side to be taking off a turn when 2/3 of the time the turn will be a blank and the pot and implied odds become a lot less compelling when villian bets pot again.