7CSFAP - Pair and Overcard Kicker vs Big Pair

[pipes]

In 7CSFAP, it often says you should try and get headsup against a bigger pair if you have a pair and an overcard kicker. I just want to get clear what conditions are necessary in order to do this and some of the math behind it. For simplicity, please assume you will definitely get the pot headsup if you raise.

1) Is it correct to do this if your hand is completely live and you know for sure the opponent he has the big pair he is representing? Or does there have to be some probability that your opponent does not have what he is representing?

2) What is the math behind it? I read in TOP that if you have (A5)5 and all of your cards are live, that you have a 41% chance of making trips or aces up by the river. Assuming a 5/10; 50 cent ante; 2 BI game it does not seem like there is enough of an dead money overlay here that makes this play a profitable one. Am I missing something or does the ante need to be larger?

3) I believe it says in the book that you go to the river with these type of hands. I assume for the most part you are taking the lead in the betting? If you know he has a high pair, then you take the free card on 6th and then fold to a bet on 7th if you do not improve, correct? Is the saved bet on 6th what makes this profitable? But what about the times when you are against an aggressive player and you are reraised on 3rd and then bet into every round?

4) Should you ever try this against someone with a pair of kings with (A5)5? Or should you limit this to someone with a lower pair like tens or jacks? So there could be more screcards and more folding equity?

5) Any hand histories that illustrate this?

Sorry, sort of a rambling thread but this is mentioned many times in 7CSFAP but its never made 100% clear what conditions should be generally apply and some of the mathematics behind it.

Thanks for any reponses.

[bholdr]

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1) Is it correct to do this if your hand is completely live and you know for sure the opponent he has the big pair he is representing? Or does there have to be some probability that your opponent does not have what he is representing?


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yes, when you know exactly what your oppnent has, you are at a huge advantage, and can use your (hopefully) superior skill to outplay him and camoflauge your hand. the less an opponent knows about your holding, the more difficult descisions he will have to make, and thus more mistakes. of course, if he might not have what he's representing, you're in an even better position, though one should always be wary of an opponent that will raise with hands other than the big pairs.

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2) What is the math behind it? I read in TOP that if you have (A5)5 and all of your cards are live, that you have a 41% chance of making trips or aces up by the river. Assuming a 5/10; 50 cent ante; 2 BI game it does not seem like there is enough of an dead money overlay here that makes this play a profitable one. Am I missing something or does the ante need to be larger?


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it's 41.5% that your hand will be the best by the river, and that improves when you have straight and/or flush potential. try running some scenarios through the two dimes odds calculator to get a feel for the power of various hands. again, the power of your hand is enhanced by your aggression and hopeflly more skillful play.

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3) I believe it says in the book that you go to the river with these type of hands. I assume for the most part you are taking the lead in the betting? If you know he has a high pair, then you take the free card on 6th and then fold to a bet on 7th if you do not improve, correct? Is the saved bet on 6th what makes this profitable? But what about the times when you are against an aggressive player and you are reraised on 3rd and then bet into every round?


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generally, and not just in this situation, you want to have the lead in the betting. however, a lot of the game depends on position, if you had buried fives and an ace showing against kings, you definitly want to be the aggressor (there is no fold equity in check-calling), but if your ace is hidden, maybe not. i still almost always try to take the lead, and i semi-bluff a lot. if i'm reraised on third, sometimes i call, sometimes i cap... depends on the opponent, my table image, lots of things... it's obviously harder to play against an aggressive player that knows that he's ahead, which is yet another reason to be the aggressor yourself. taking a free card on sixth is a good play, but you're also giving up the lead and revealing your hand. keep in mind that your opponent may also not improve, and two small pair may be enough to win it. if i think that's the case, i'll sometimes check behind on sixth and check-call if i make two small pair on the river. if i have pair on board, i'll almost always bet on sixth.

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4) Should you ever try this against someone with a pair of kings with (A5)5? Or should you limit this to someone with a lower pair like tens or jacks? So there could be more screcards and more folding equity?


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i do every time. of course, you're in a better position against Js or Ts, especially if your ace is your door card. i'm always ready to fold if my opponent makes a pair on board or otherwise improves, too.

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5) Any hand histories that illustrate this?


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i'll try to post one the next time it comes up.

my advice should be taken with a grain of salt, as i'm still figuring this out myself, and i usually play 3/6, where the ante is a little higher. i like this post a lot, i think we should discuss situations like this more often and in depth. hopefully, andy, carlos, felicia, etc, will add their thoughts....

[RandomUser]

I've always felt the opposite. I'd much rather be the big pair getting heads up with a lower pair with big kicker instead of having other people in the pot.

Ac 5d 5h 202863 40.57 297133 59.43 4 0.00 0.406
Kc Qc Kd 297133 59.43 202863 40.57 4 0.00 0.594

Ac 5d 5h 147857 29.57 352141 70.43 2 0.00 0.296
Kc Qc Kd 204852 40.97 295142 59.03 6 0.00 0.410
Ts Th 8h 147285 29.46 352711 70.54 4 0.00 0.295

The 3rd player lowers my equity from 60% to 40% while only lowing the 2nd player by 10%.

Also, if you look at the equity% compared to the bet size, with 2 players the low pair has 41% equity and is investing 50% of the pot while with 3 players it is much closer (29% equity and 33% of pot).