An overpair against a LAG

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Playing live 1/2NL. I have $300, LAG/Villain has recently sat down with over $1K. I believe my image is tight.

I have played with Villain once before. He frequently raises pre-flop -- close to 50% of the time that the pot is unraised to him. He also calls raised pots with a wide variety of hands and likes to be the bully. I only remember one hand between us during the previous session: My cards were very cold and I picked up KJs in late position. There were two limper and I made it $12 to go. Folded to villain in BB who raised to $40. Folded to me and I fold. A few minutes later he tells me that he had Kings.

So here is the hand last night: Villain is on the button and I am two seats to his right (CO-1).

Three limpers to me and I find red QQ. I raise to $15. Villain calls and two of the limpers call.

Flop (approx $65): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Checked to me. I bet $60. Villain calls. Others fold.

Turn (approx $185): 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet $75. Villain says "You know I can't call." I say "Do what you have to do." He takes a minute and raises to $200.

Pot is now $460, a call is $125, my remaining stack (pre-call) is less than $175.

Fold? Push?

[Edit: While I was thinking, he apparently said "Your Kings are no good." I didn't hear him but someone repeated it after I made my decision... does that make it an easier fold? easier push?]

[DoubleDown]

I think reads are pretty important here.

Would villain not re-raise PF with AA/KK?
Would villain flat call the flop with a set?

I think he would have to raise your flop bet (with a set or overpair AA-TT) since there are two players left to act behind him on the flop after he calls your pot-sized bet and there is a flush draw out there.

I think 3 things would lead me to believe I had the best hand here:
1- no AA/KK b/c with position I think he might PFRr b/c since he has a LAG image people will not respect his PFRr to be a super-strong hand
2- heads-up a set might flat call your pot-sized bet on the flop ... but here i think a set would raise the flop to knock out flush draws with multiple players left to act
3- he's been known to bully the table (IMO less important than #1-2, but still factors in)

Only thing I'm not sure about is how much to bet on the turn. I think $75 is too weak, unless you were enticing him to come over the top. I'm not sure what a good amount is, maybe $120? But then you are pot-comitted, and what do you do if the river brings an A, K, or [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? Maybe push all-in on the turn?

Interested to hear other responses.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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I think reads are pretty important here.

Would villain not re-raise PF with AA/KK?
Would villain flat call the flop with a set?


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I didn't think villain would have flat called pre-flop with a big pair. It was unlikely that he flat-called post flop with a set (or two pair) -- but its possible.

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Only thing I'm not sure about is how much to bet on the turn. I think $75 is too weak, unless you were enticing him to come over the top. I'm not sure what a good amount is, maybe $120? But then you are pot-comitted, and what do you do if the river brings an A, K, or [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? Maybe push all-in on the turn?


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This is where I was most uncertain. I think I should have made it slightly larger (maybe $100) so that his calling with a draw to the flush was clearly incorrect. I do think that anything more would have made me pot-committed -- I felt pretty pot-committed as it was.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

bump... do you need more info? is this too player dependent? I would love another opinion or two...

[Ghazban]

The situation is difficult and very opponent-dependent. I think you could make a strong case for either folding or pushing here. If it were me, I'd go with my gut instinct at the time. If I'm wrong and put it all in as an underdog, so be it-- I've still got 2 outs (unless he has quads).

Given what you already knew about this player before the hand, is there any way you could have gotten a seat change? Playing out of position against a deep-stacked LAG is not something I would want to do. Against players like this, position can be more important than anything else. Offer the guy to the LAG's left $50 to switch seats-- it'll be more than worth it.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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Given what you already knew about this player before the hand, is there any way you could have gotten a seat change? Playing out of position against a deep-stacked LAG is not something I would want to do. Against players like this, position can be more important than anything else. Offer the guy to the LAG's left $50 to switch seats-- it'll be more than worth it.

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Actually -- two very deep LAGs sat down within 15 minutes -- and both of them were directly to my left... I would have moved but I knew I was leaving within the hour (and the table was full). I actually decided to play very tight for the rest of the session and not gamble on mediocre starting hands -- but KK was not something I could pass up.

Also, I don't like being directly to a LAG's left UNLESS I am playing super tight. In that position my semi-deep stack (150BB) doesn't play deep at all. My preferred position? A few seats to the left of the LAG (with the good players in between us and the bad players to my left)... but then I guess I am asking too much. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jhall23]

What are you doing typically on the turn after continuation bets that don't hit? And how is he reacting on the turn against other pre-flop raisers. Even though you haven't been in many pots with him at a live game you guys probably have some idea how similar situations have played out. He might have a real good idea that you have some sort of overpair here or he might view the under bet as weak. So I am wondering whether he is thinking that he is trying to push you off your hand if he thinks you are too tight, whether he thinks you have nothing, or whether he is expecting a call.

Based on the comments I would lean to think he at least thinks you have something (plus your bet into 4 people on the flop and bet on the turn) but can't say whether he is using it to get a fold when you have him beat. It's a pretty tough spot and hard to say from just reading a thread and not being there.

All in all the turn is an odd spot because the two extra callers inflated the pot so any bet much bigger is starting to commit you to see the hand through. One thing to consider, if you decide you want to see the hand through, is to check raise all in. If villian is super LAG he probably won't be able to resist putting a bet on the turn to get you some extra money. Turns out your weak lead did the same thing but I don't know what it means to the villians hand range he would raise with. All in all a pretty player/table dependent situation I'd say.

[paulewalnutz]

I am new here - but thought it's worth adding that, yes, it is read-dependent, but this guy told us what he knows, and it's not much, but it's all he had to make the decision. And thus all we have.

I push all-in here. First, he's definitely capable of trying to push a seemingly tight player off a pot, in which case you'll be a monster favorite if he's on some sort of semibluff (J-10 suited, 9-10, J-9, A-9). Second, although you're leaving soon, it sounds like you play at this table a fair amount, it will help for people to know you don't just give them credit for hands they're representing.

If he's got a boat or AA/KK, curse the cards and not the read - with QQ what you're looking for is a low flop, and you got it. When it pairs it makes it makes it less likely he's got 33, and less likely he wouldn't slowplay with a boat. Push push push - don't let this guy bully you.

Finally - if he said your KK is no good - I'd be more inclined to push - again, it's read dependent, but if he had a boat why would he say that? For all of you who are dying to answer it - I do know the reasons, I just think he's trying to mentally dominate with BS cards, rather than play a jedi mind trick. Push it in!

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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What are you doing typically on the turn after continuation bets that don't hit? And how is he reacting on the turn against other pre-flop raisers.

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I don't think there is anything that I would do "typically" after a failed continuation bet. If I suspected the caller was tight and had a vulnerable hand, I would bet. Otherwise I am likely to check/fold. Overall, I think that I try again about 1 out of 3 times (but that is just a gut-based estimate).

He likes to raise. I have seen him raise, call and fold on the flop and I have definitely seen him raise the turn after calling. I can't recall a showdown in that situation. He rarely shows down a hand -- which makes me think he is a good player.

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Based on the comments I would lean to think he at least thinks you have something (plus your bet into 4 people on the flop and bet on the turn) but can't say whether he is using it to get a fold when you have him beat.

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Absolutely -- he was pretty certain I had a big pair and I didn't hide it from him. That favored me calling (or pushing actually).

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

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but this guy told us what he knows, and it's not much,

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I think I told you a decent amount having only played with this guy for less than two hours over two sessions...

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Second, although you're leaving soon, it sounds like you play at this table a fair amount, it will help for people to know you don't just give them credit for hands they're representing.

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Interesting thought... I do play this table regularly. certainly not the sole reason I would push, but it is something to add into the mix.