Quick odd calculations

[ChipLeaderer]

I tend to calculate odds quite quickly usually rounding off. For example, If I have suited cards and 2 of those cards hit on the flop, then the odds of me getting my flush by the river is 2:1 against.

My reasoning goes like this: there are 4 suits and on the turn there's 4:1 chance of hitting my suit. Since there are 2 chances for me to hit my flush, the odds are 2 times as much, so 2:1.

Am I simplifying odd calculation too much and is there a long term loss if the numbers are rounded off to these approximations?

[cold_cash]

I don't know how much the over-simplification will matter, but you're definetely working harder than you need to.

Just memorize this.

[Student]

I think you're taking a sensible direction. Pot odds, when computed with precision, seems to be not nearly as useful as the simple observation: the pot has lots of money in it, and I have many outs with the cards as they are, so I'm going to bet. Some refer to this process as "gambling." Done correctly, the process could be called "work." Well, personally I'm going into poker to do "fun," and that's not intented to mean fun work!

I was reading an article the other day, whereby a hand was being exhaustively analyzed. The math was astonishing, though utterly useless in a game situation. The fellow was talking about Player A "owning" a percentage of Player B. Apparently the Big Boys enter into side arrangements with each other, rather than simply dividing remaining tournament winnings among each other, near the end. So everyone owns a percentage of everyone else remaining, all this to avoid the appearance to onlookers that winnings were simply divided. After all, the tournament is on TV, and splitting prizes at the end among the survivors doesn't make for great TV!

I'm a mathematician. I'm constantly hunting for approximations to complex mechanisms, so I can enjoy benefits of my complex understandings, and without memorizing tons of stuff, using a computer, paper and pencil, calculator, or printed pages. This applies to the stock market, real estate, rare stamp market, and poker, all in my personal experience.

Dave

[signal]

another useful thing i've seen is from SSH.

it basically says for turn calls (this can be modified for flop whatever...) take 46 (unseen cards) and divide by number of outs then subtract one.

for example,

flush draw = nine outs

46/9 = 5.1

then subtract 1 and ----> 4.1:1 dog


this works too for flop calculations; however, you will be slightly off since there are, in this case, 47 unseen cards (but close enough).

so just take [46/(#outs)]-1 = x and then you are ~x:1 dog.

in practice (in a game) you say 46/9~5 -->4:1 (close enough).

[afk]

Honestly, with experience and repitition these numbers will be second nature to you in a short time. It's a bit daunting at first but you'll get used to it.

[Student]

Now that you've jogged my memory, I've seen a very good estimating procedure, and I've probably set aside a file in my computer to store it. It wasn't actually in Krieger's "Hold'em Excellence" or his follow up book, but in a separate article he'd published. Try a Google search; you might be surprised. It converts outs into odds simply and quickly.

Dave

[Hold'me]

I believe you are referring to Pot Odds Made Easy by Lou Krieger. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Student]

Yes, that's the one! With a simple addition one has an excellent approximation to the opens vs odds charts.

[Guthrie]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot odds, when computed with precision, seems to be not nearly as useful as the simple observation: the pot has lots of money in it, and I have many outs with the cards as they are, so I'm going to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is quite effective actually. Unfortunately it's also why so many people suck out without having any concept of pot odds--there's lots of money in the pot, so they bet.

Of course many of them also bet when there's little money in the pot and for this we love them.