(Yet Another) 10K Hand Checkup

[DerFleischmeister]

[img]http://groups.msn.com/_Secure/0WwCZAgcbuMFbtDtCcz5qUuVjNbE8MMPp2xp6VPfIqWhER7D1Q 8p!A3v5Qm37mhzSYzykzzKlzv1SgNh*dIWuPsZbJJ1dbOzvd82 JYXj0O6NqaeCs3urVkcLKPZ*a847rC!OSP7C!wQw/10K%20Hand%20Checkup%201.jpg[/img]

(Note: All these numbers are at PP .50/1, including about 500 hands at 2+2 tables.)

Any comments would be greatly appreciated. There is a definite leak in my postflop game, and I think it may be either pushing marginal (or -EV) edges too much, or folding too much on the flop. My postflop aggro numbers are just too high.

[thesharpie]

You do look a little too aggressive postflop, it seems you have a raise or fold mentality as you're also folding winners too much.

[davelin]

You seem to play fit-and-fold post-flop, your aggression and WtSD stats indicate this to me.

[Shillx]

Under player actions, my Call% is 15 on the flop and 19 on the turn and river. You seem to be turning some +EV calls into folds on both the flop and turn. That in turn drops your WTSD all the way down to 27.5% (mine is over 34%). All of the other stats look okay, but you have to stop folding so much.

Brad

[Rudi]

[ QUOTE ]
Under player actions, my Call% is 15 on the flop and 19 on the turn and river. You seem to be turning some +EV calls into folds on both the flop and turn. That in turn drops your WTSD all the way down to 27.5% (mine is over 34%). All of the other stats look okay, but you have to stop folding so much.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

+EV calls are determined by pot odds, pot equity, position and reads? After 4k hands I'm 25% WTSD and trying desparately to bump that back up. I'm struggling with fit-or-fold postflop play.

[grjr]

Like others have said your flop and turn call % is WAY lower than mine. I call preflop with a lot more suited connectors and one-gaps so I flop a lot of draws though. I feel that 20% seeing the flop is too low to be optimal for Party .50/1. I'm at 27% which is too high for most people but probably ~25% is optimal for that level.

Since you don't play a lot of marginal hands preflop I bet you're losing a LOT of money from the blinds. What are your BB/100 from the SB and BB?

[DerFleischmeister]

SB: BB/100: -17 (VP$IP: 30.03%)
BB: BB/100: -21

I am a +3 BB/100 or more winner from all other positions (except for, amusingly enough, the CO, where I'm +1 BB/100), so we may be on to something here.

As far as the classic "marginal PF hands" go, my VP$IP, BB/100, and WtSD numbers are like this:

PPs 22-88: VP$IP: 75.00% BB/100: +19 WtSD: 18.80%
SCs T9s-32s: VP$IP: 32.84% BB/100: -7 WtSD: 21.33%
S1Gs T8s-42s: VP$IP: 16.67% BB/100: -9 WtSD: 23.53%
Axs A8s-A2s: VP$IP: 72.57% BB/100: +8 WtSD: 26.34%

Some notes:

-With the lower PPs and Axs's, my normal play PF with them, basically regardless of position, is to limp if not raised, but will usually fold to a non-maniacal raiser, if I have to cold-call with them. (of course, this is just the normal play...table/game conditions can often change this.)
-The big difference between a low and high PFR% for PPs for me is between 88 and 99.
-The big difference between a low and high VP$IP for SCs for me is between JTs and T9s.
-All of my Axs's are about the same VP$IP.

[grjr]

[ QUOTE ]
SB: BB/100: -17 (VP$IP: 30.03%)
BB: BB/100: -21


[/ QUOTE ]

You need to learn to play your blinds a lot better. You can't lose that much money there and be a big overall winner. Here are my blind stats after 28,000 hands:

SB -.08 BB/hand
BB -.04 BB/hand

If I had your blind stats I would have lost $554 in the SB instead of $269. I would have lost $817 in the BB instead of $170. So in total, I would have lost $932 more in the blinds which would take my winnings from $1662 to $730 and more than halved my BB/100.

You're obviously folding way too many winners from the blinds and you need to somehow improve that.

I want to qualify that my Big Blind BB/hand is lower than most partly because I jump around tables a lot and post from MP and CO a lot.

[imported_leader]

I never thought I'd say this, but I think you need to call more. A flop AF of like 5 is insane. You need to bet less marginal stuff and call more. You may be trying for to many free cards. You’re likely folding marginal but good draws.

[stlip]

Perhaps you aren't taking enough advantage of good position and playing a wider range of hands from the CO and button when there are several limpers in front of you. Likewise, even in a raised pot, as long as a couple of loose callers have also come in -- and when does that not happen in a .5/1 game -- you might have some playable hands in LP or the blinds that you would never want to play head up against a raiser but which are very playable in a big, multiway pot.

After the flop any of these multiway and/or raised pots are precisely the kind that are big enough to give you pot odds to continue even if you don't quite flop the nuts.

Compared to my game at 1/2, you only see the turn with about 15/100 your hands, while I see the turn with 21-22 that look +EV to me. Choose your own bad pun about playing with one hand tied behind your back or how you just need a few more hands to get the job done, but you get the idea.