Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-11-2005, 01:55 PM
Diggslick Diggslick is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 37
Default Basic Suited Connectors question.

What percentage of the time will suited connectors flop either ,Two pair(or boat or quads) or Four to a flush(flush) or OESD(or the straight)? Thanks
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-11-2005, 02:48 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity
Posts: 524
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

Don't trust this post. I'm curious if anyone wants to tackle this problem and correct my errors (I'm sure there are some).

Assuming you have Js-10s.

There are 117600 flop possibilities.

Exactly Quads: 2 Combinations
Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations
Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-11-2005, 03:53 PM
chapstick chapstick is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 90
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you have Js-10s.
There are 117600 flop possibilities.


[/ QUOTE ]
I believe there are 19600 flop possibilities.
C(50,3) = 19600. You are assuming two flops
with different order are distinct.

[ QUOTE ]

Exactly Quads: 2 Combinations
Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations


[/ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos, and 99 exactly-two-pair combos.

The rest I have not looked yet.

[ QUOTE ]

Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

[/ QUOTE ]
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-11-2005, 04:44 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity
Posts: 524
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

Yeah, the order was the issue...I forgot to divide by 3!. First time in a while I've had that blunder. Definitely an oversight [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-11-2005, 04:46 PM
binions binions is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 4
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't trust this post. I'm curious if anyone wants to tackle this problem and correct my errors (I'm sure there are some).

Assuming you have Js-10s.

There are 117600 flop possibilities.

Exactly Quads: 2 Combinations
Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations
Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you want to flop a straight, 2 pair or straight draw when the board is 3 flush against you? Do you want to flop a straight draw on a paired board?

In other words, some of these "good" flops are dangerous.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-11-2005, 04:51 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity
Posts: 524
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how you got there. Did you consider the fact that there's 3 ways for the first two cards to be J-J? Maybe I'm overlooking something. Wouldn't surprise me.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-11-2005, 05:44 PM
Cobra Cobra is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 116
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

I analyzed this for a similar hand.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...774&Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit =25&Main=2188301&Search=true&where=&am p;Name=20638&daterange=&newerval=&newe rtype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=# Post2189774

Cobra
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-11-2005, 07:01 PM
LetYouDown LetYouDown is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity
Posts: 524
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

So relatively close...I excluded double belly busters, but I think for the most part we're in agreement.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-11-2005, 11:10 PM
Mr Mojo Risin Mr Mojo Risin is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 122
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

Cobra, acording to your math, there is a 48.49 chance of hitting something on the flop with these cards. Did i do my math right?
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-12-2005, 01:55 PM
chapstick chapstick is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 90
Default Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how you got there. Did you consider the fact that there's 3 ways for the first two cards to be J-J? Maybe I'm overlooking something. Wouldn't surprise me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. My mistake. I multiplied by 11, for the remaining
non-trip-contributing card, and forgot about its suit.
I should have multiplied by 44. (Note 66x4 = 264).
Apologies.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:15 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions Inc.