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#1
05-11-2005, 01:55 PM
 Diggslick Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 37
Basic Suited Connectors question.

What percentage of the time will suited connectors flop either ,Two pair(or boat or quads) or Four to a flush(flush) or OESD(or the straight)? Thanks
#2
05-11-2005, 02:48 PM
 LetYouDown Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity Posts: 524
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

Don't trust this post. I'm curious if anyone wants to tackle this problem and correct my errors (I'm sure there are some).

Assuming you have Js-10s.

There are 117600 flop possibilities.

Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations
Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations
#3
05-11-2005, 03:53 PM
 chapstick Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 90
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]

Assuming you have Js-10s.
There are 117600 flop possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]
I believe there are 19600 flop possibilities.
C(50,3) = 19600. You are assuming two flops
with different order are distinct.

[ QUOTE ]

Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations

[/ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos, and 99 exactly-two-pair combos.

The rest I have not looked yet.

[ QUOTE ]

Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

[/ QUOTE ]
#4
05-11-2005, 04:44 PM
 LetYouDown Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity Posts: 524
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

Yeah, the order was the issue...I forgot to divide by 3!. First time in a while I've had that blunder. Definitely an oversight [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
#5
05-11-2005, 04:46 PM
 binions Junior Member Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 4
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]
Don't trust this post. I'm curious if anyone wants to tackle this problem and correct my errors (I'm sure there are some).

Assuming you have Js-10s.

There are 117600 flop possibilities.

Exactly Boat: 18 combinations
Exactly Trips: 264 combinations
Exactly Two Pair: 396 combinations
Four Flush (incl. OESFD): 2035 Combinations
Flush (incl. SF): 165 Combinations
OESD: 320 Combinations
Straight: 192 Combinations

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you want to flop a straight, 2 pair or straight draw when the board is 3 flush against you? Do you want to flop a straight draw on a paired board?

In other words, some of these "good" flops are dangerous.
#6
05-11-2005, 04:51 PM
 LetYouDown Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity Posts: 524
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how you got there. Did you consider the fact that there's 3 ways for the first two cards to be J-J? Maybe I'm overlooking something. Wouldn't surprise me.
#7
05-11-2005, 05:44 PM
 Cobra Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 116
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

I analyzed this for a similar hand.

Cobra
#8
05-11-2005, 07:01 PM
 LetYouDown Senior Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: Sharing a smoke w/negativity Posts: 524
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

So relatively close...I excluded double belly busters, but I think for the most part we're in agreement.
#9
05-11-2005, 11:10 PM
 Mr Mojo Risin Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 122
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

Cobra, acording to your math, there is a 48.49 chance of hitting something on the flop with these cards. Did i do my math right?
#10
05-12-2005, 01:55 PM
 chapstick Member Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 90
Re: Basic Suited Connectors question.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I get 66 exactly-trips combos

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering how you got there. Did you consider the fact that there's 3 ways for the first two cards to be J-J? Maybe I'm overlooking something. Wouldn't surprise me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. My mistake. I multiplied by 11, for the remaining
non-trip-contributing card, and forgot about its suit.
I should have multiplied by 44. (Note 66x4 = 264).
Apologies.

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