$50NL bottom set vs possible higher set

BZ_Zorro · #1 05-11-2005, 01:52 PM

Possible higher set, all the signs going off... Who lays this down? I've read before that set over set is usually a loss of stack but clarification would be good.

A few hands in, not much info. From notes MP2 is straight up, he has high pockets without a doubt. No clue on CO.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter

UTG ($46.05)
UTG+1 ($45.3)
MP1 ($39.3)
MP2 ($49.5)
CO ($57.75)
Hero ($52.15)
SB ($76.49)
BB ($49)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, 2 folds.

Flop: ($6) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP2 bets $7, CO calls $7, Hero raises to $14, MP2 calls $7, CO goes all in [$49], Hero is all in [$36.4], MP2 folds.

Turn: ($117) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($117) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $117

Results in white below: 
CO has 8c 8d (three of a kind, eights).
Hero has 5h 5d (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: CO wins $117. 

Easy fold? How about if Hero had 88?

I know this is run of the mill stuff but I'm still questioning some of the basic aspects of my play, so thanks for responding.

Perhaps reraise to $20 on the flop instead? I initially read CO as big draw so I wanted to milk both him and the overpair and hit them on the turn if they missed.

MLerra · #2 05-11-2005, 02:02 PM

CO played that extremely well. On the flop, he thought he'd call, in order to induce another potential bet on the turn, and to keep you in there. Once he realized you both might feel pot committed, or think your hands were good, he put you all-in so he wouldn't have to fear you hitting your straight or flush draw, if that's what you held.

elus2 · #3 05-11-2005, 02:03 PM

CO's line of call, push screams massive hand. if it wasn't TT/88 then the only other hands i could (very remotely) see playing like this would be Ac8c, 7c6c, Jc9c. that makes 6 combinations of sets and 3 combinations of flush draws. i'd like to hear from others what other possible holdings CO can have that we can beat. i'd lay down 55 but call with 88.

wtfsvi · #4 05-11-2005, 02:07 PM

Yes, I think you would be better off raising to at least 20. Don't think you can almost ever get away from a set with tose stacks on a draw-heavy low-card flop like that. Especially not in a raised pot. You'd have to have a really solid read.

elus2 · #5 05-11-2005, 02:08 PM

CO played the hand abysmally. CO should have raised to cut down Hero's implied odds. By raising, CO's hand will also be that much harder to read. As it is, his line is very transparent.

BZ_Zorro · #6 05-11-2005, 02:15 PM

In addition the hands you mention and the set, I was thinking AKs, QJs, maybe AA if he was slowplaying MP2's overpair and expected me to fold.

I think any of those might be pushed at $50NL, especially if he expected a fold from me after his flat call.

kurto · #7 05-11-2005, 02:17 PM

We'll all get killed by set over set, but I have been looking closely at these situations to try to minimize the losses in these situations.

Let's say you're playing against decent straight-forward opponents... I actually think in this situation one could argue for a laydown.

The ONLY made hand that an average-decent player that makes this bet, considering the preflop raise, is a set. Pocket aces could might do this (though I don't think they would play it this way) but considering the preflop action, I would be more willing to put MP2 on the high PP.

I was in a hand recently where I lost a sizeable amount knowing I probably had 2nd best but the pot was so huge and there was a sidepot that made up for 1/2 my losses that I had to stay in.

The action went like this....
A shortstacked MP player limped in. I'm at the cutoff. To my immediate right, a relatively bad but tight player bumps it up 8xbb. I had black Kings. I considered reraising but I thought his bet was sufficient to probably make it heads up and I wanted to make my decision on the flop (see if there's an ace on the flop... how they would react and possibly bluff it.)

Folds to the SB (decent player) who makes a long pause and calls.

The flop comes 2 rags and a 10 (2 clubs). The SB makes a minbet, the MP calls, the guy to my right raises, I reraise him... and the SB goes all in. They all call to me.

At that point, I thought the SB hit his set. But the SB had less then myself or the guy to my right (who I knew wasn't going to fold no matter what), so I decided to gamble and went all in. (I felt there was a decent chance I had second best hand and longshot draws to a flush and a set... weak, but still, it was a consideration)

Sure enough, the SB had a baby pocket pair and hit his set. The guy to my right had jacks so I won a sidepot.

My point of this story is, considering the strength shown by all the other players preflop and on the flop, and taking into account the hesitation preflop (which to me indicated he was judging implied odds) -- there was NO other hand a decent player would play this way on that board. (I would have folded except that the sidepot was enough to win back 1/2 of my invest or so as well as a small chance of sucking out on an enormous pot)

I think many will say its weak to ever fold a set, but I think that's crazy if you have decent reads.

The only drawing hand that would be proper in the situation posted above would be if the CO had a 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (or 9J) and had a monster draw... but I don't think most players are calling 8xbb raises with either of those 2 hands UTG.

Though I predict people will lambast me saying never fold a set. (I'll just say, when you've been at a table long enough to get reads on most of the players... you can tell. With reads, I think its often very easy to spot a set.)

swolfe · #8 05-11-2005, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
CO played the hand abysmally. CO should have raised to cut down Hero's implied odds. By raising, CO's hand will also be that much harder to read. As it is, his line is very transparent.

[/ QUOTE ]
not just this, but there are flush and straight draws on the board. i love it when i bet my draws and the person with the set slowplays it and i bust them with a turned flush.

CO played it terribly.

too many posters recently have been check-raising or check-calling sets. at least OP raised here (even though it was a shitty min-raise).

elus2 · #9 05-11-2005, 02:20 PM

Depending on how aggressive he is, AcKc might have been reraised preflop and will probably raise that flop. It seems uncharacteristic for QcJc to play this way and I do not see how he could think that he has any fold equity from you after you minraise another 7 dollars.

elus2 · #10 05-11-2005, 02:25 PM

the preflop raise was 4x bb.