Afleet Alex, going for 5 of last 7 derby winners

[NajdorfDefense]

I bet 4-6 races a year, but I know the Keys to winning the Kentucky Derby :
1) Favorites don't win. 1 since 1979 has come in - Fusiachi Pegasus. Arazi finished 8th. Harlan's Holiday was 7th year. Demons Begone was D-F-Last in 85 or 86. 6-5 Empire Maker didn't get it done. Cliff's Edge didn't win last year either, and 5-2 is way, way too low to bet on Bellamy Road, who's had one spectacular race and nothing else impressive. Avoid. [of course, he could be the next Secretariat, but i'll bet against that any Derby Day.] Smarty Jones ended as fave, but Cliff's Edge was fave all week.


3) Untested jockeys almost never win. Experience is at a premium in this race. However, on a good enough horse it does not matter - think Spectacular Bid and Steven Cauthen at 16 on Affirmed.

4) Horses that haven't run as a 2-yr old haven't won since Apollo in 1882 [!]. That hurts Greeley's Galaxy.

5) Need more than two prep races as a 3-yr old to win. Not since Sunny's Halo in 1983 has a horse done this. This eliminates Bellamy Road and a few others.

5) Beyer Speed figure MUST be over 100 so far, and 8 of last 12 over 105 going into Derby Day - this eliminates most of the field. In fact, the only horses that have hit 105 or more have been Bellamy's Road, Afleet Alex, and Greeley's Galaxy. Bandini only hit 103. High Limit had a nice wire-to-wire trip and ran a 105 2 races ago. Bobby Frankel I think didn't want to tire him out next in the Blue Grass. I'll be shocked if the winner is not from this group above.
Also ignore the Dosage Index - neither Real Quiet or Charismatic qualified.

6) Heavy longshots don't win - the field is too tough, and the race too long, and their jockeys not good enough. Last real 'big' longshot
was Ferdinand in 1986 at 30-1 or more.

This system works year in year out for me - from Sunday Silence to Lil E Tee to Go For Gin to Monarchos to War Emblem to Smarty Jones. Even when it doesn't, I normally hit the board every year for small profits.

Having thus jinxed myself, whom do I bet on?

Well, as I said earlier, I really, really like Afleet Alex [and not because he's from PA, that's just coincidence.] Only horse with two Beyers over 104 - same winning combination as Smarty Jones last year. 1st or 2nd in every Graded Stakes Race except when he had the lung infection 2 races ago and couldn't run, bounced back to an 8-length romp in Arkansas Derby, again similar to SJ last year. Also, he has earned the most money of any of the horses.

Greeley's Galaxy is the other horse I like more and more this week. Wins the Illinois Derby, puts up the 3rd highest speed figure [after Bellamy and Alex] and is totally ignored by everyone, the exact scenario that happened when I nailed War Emblem to win at 10/12-1. Sired by Mr. Greeley out of Gone West, he might have the best endurance pedigree in the whole field, and remember, this is the first time many of these horses will got 1.25mi, esp carrying 126 lbs. Also, no other horse has come within 8 lengths of him in his victories, so he might truly be faster than we've seen.

Noble Causeway, Sun King, and High Fly are all great candidates to round out your trifecta card, esp if odds on Sun King stay high. Bandini won the LA Derby at 1.25 mi ahead of High Limit and Consolidator, but maybe the 2nd favorite [3rd at worst.] However, his last furlong at the Blue Grass was sssslooooowwwww.

The key to betting this race, as with Limit Poker, is Expected Value. I'd rather bet a horse with 20% shot to win getting 10-1 odds than a horse with 45% chance to win getting even money. So my final bets and exactas will change as the odds change on Derby Day, but my two biggest bets will be on the above two horses.

So there you have it...now watch some 50-1 shot win just to make me look bad. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Bellamy Road could win by 13 lengths again and be this generations Secretariat or Man O' War, but I doubt it. Plus Steinbrenner's having a crappy year.

Afleet Alex
Sun King
Greeley's Galaxy
Greater Good

'All horseplayers die broke.' ~ Damon Runyon


Naj [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

[Clarkmeister]

I agree with your pick. I like Bandini and Noble Causeway underneath.

[dicelumpY2005]

Man, I hate the favorites just as much as the next guy, but wow did this horse (Bellamy Road) look amazing in the Wood Memorial. I've only hit 2 horses in the last 10 years or so in the Derby (Silver Charm and War Emblem), so I'm not going to come on here and brag that I've hit the Derby every other year, or whatever... I have to endorse the favorite this go around. Only once in the last 6 or 7 Derbys have I bet the fav. (Empire Maker in 2003-2nd place) I am rooting for Bellamy Road just based on the fact that if the Wood wasn't a fluke, and the horse really is that good, then we may finally get a Triple Crown winner...

[RaDiCaLReeD]

Bandini
High Fly
Nouble Cause
Afleet
Bellimy Road

Afleet will be on early fast pace and will possibly fall back on the stretch

[CCx]

I usually only bet on people, but just like last year gotta bet the Philly horse [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Go Alex!

[CCx]

Wow, well, that was exciting... he almost won

[other1]

[ QUOTE ]
So there you have it...now watch some 50-1 shot win just to make me look bad. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. A 50-1 shot could never win. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[RaDiCaLReeD]

weird finish ... oh well. I like what you had to say about what to look for. Will you be putting your 2 cents in for The Preakness? I would be interested in what you had to say.

Just think how Zito feels!

[other1]

He had 5 outs vs. Giacomo's oen.. Bad neat.