Value bet this river?

Phlebas · #1 05-07-2005, 11:33 AM

Anyone got a good argument for or against value betting this river?

Reads:
BB - pretty fishy. Moderately aggressive pre-flop, very passive after, liable to call down with a low pair
UTG+1 - semi-loose/passive. Would generally bet out if he thought he had the best hand
Button - only played 5 hands but already seemed rather loose and fairly aggressive

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (11.20 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (15.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero ?

Given that no one else bet or raised the turn I wasn't too bothered about the flush (except maybe someone with a couple of small clubs) but the river gave anyone with a jack the straight. At the time I thought I may get one call with an outside chance of two but was about as likely to be raised if I was beaten - and I don't think I personally could fold to a raise here. Thoughts?

Cheers,
Richard

droolie · #2 05-07-2005, 11:39 AM

I'm checking this. Anybody with J had this draw from the flop. I put the probability of seeing a check raise or button raise as very high. You don't want to fold but you might have to even if you bet this river. Your hand is good a decent amount of the time but not enough to value bet IMO.

FishHooks · #3 05-07-2005, 11:45 AM

This really is one of the only good value bet questions i've seen, there are so many people in this pot I would proboly check and some retard will proboly bet for you on the button with a pair or 9's or something and you can see if you get raised. I really want to say value bet, but there are just too many players in the hand.

bozlax · #4 05-07-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Reads:
BB - pretty fishy. Moderately aggressive pre-flop, very passive after, liable to call down with a low pair
UTG+1 - semi-loose/passive. Would generally bet out if he thought he had the best hand
Button - only played 5 hands but already seemed rather loose and fairly aggressive

[/ QUOTE ]

Based on your reads, I don't think anybody's holding the jack. I'd say Button has AQ or AT, loooved you for betting the flop for him, and hates everybody for not folding when he raised.

I bet/call this river, expecting everybody to fold, with the possible exception of UTG+1. Maybe Button is still angry enough to call, too.

kapw7 · #5 05-07-2005, 11:56 AM

That's not a nice situation, is it? You are going to spend one bet here anyway so bet and fold to a raise.

Is that Phlebas the Phoenician?

toss · #6 05-07-2005, 11:56 AM

Hmmmm, what hand is more likely for those two villains to hold, a straight or two pair? If I knew this then I would know what to do.

toss · #7 05-07-2005, 11:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
bet and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep in mind that we beat any two pair and lowers sets, also after we bet and its one back to us were getting stupid odds.

ajrenni · #8 05-07-2005, 12:06 PM

I take the free showdown here. With 4 to the straight on the board there is too much risk to make this a value bet, even though your hand may very well be good still. What is even more concern is that someone with a Jack flopped an OESD, so UTG+1 and BB's flop and turn calls look like that is a possibility. There is no way you could fold to a raise here, so don't put yourself in that position.

- Andy

droolie · #9 05-07-2005, 12:08 PM

You certainly might get some value out of this particular hand if you bet but I don't think the gamble is worth it. There are just too many players alive for me to be confident I we be raised let alone we'll get callers we beat. It seems like a perfect sitaution for an EP player to try a C/R. HU or three way I probably bet.

You need to only be called by hands that you beat for this bet to have value. If anybody raises you will likely see the str8 but the pot will be so big you'll feel compelled to call. The likelihood of one of these three puds having a J seems reasonably high to me as they would certainly have to chase that draw from the flop regardless of the action.

I think there's a huge % chance that button bets this when you check to him. This bet does not concern me he either has it or he doesn't. It's the EP players who concern me here. If an EP player check raises you can fold without remorse and you saved a BB. If no check raise you can call closing the action. It's much better than betting, having button raise then being forced to call his raise or possible a check/ 3-bet.

toss · #10 05-07-2005, 12:14 PM

Whoops didn't see the button. Then this would be a relatively easy check.