On the subject of "reads"

[Big Limpin']

"I put him on a premium hand because he has been playing tight"

"Villian seemed semi-maniacal, he had been speeding around for levels 1/2, so my AJ looked strong against his probable holdings"

etcetera, etcetera. I read this kind of stuff all the time in ppls posts. And let me say upfront, im brutal at reading a person for playing style. I dont even try. But as i become more and more at ease with the cadence of 4-tabling, i find i can observe the goings on in hands im not involved in pretty well. That is to say, i'm now finding myself recalling previous hands when im trying to put a villian on a hand(s).

But heres the thing...we play on sites with such a deep player pool, where you dont see the same player over and over again (high limit players pls ignore, this doesnt apply to you). Essentially, you are basing your reads on what a player has done in the last, oh, 20 or 30 hands. What is this really, in the grand sceme of things?

If theres one thing we all should have picked up by now, its that poker is a game of swings. You run hot, you run cold. You go 9 in a row OTM. You pimp a 65% ROI for a day. Seriously, what is 20 hands?

I guess what im saying/asking here is how much weight can you put on a guys previous actions in a SnG? I mean, for sure, if a guy is seeing 50% of the flops...sure you can deduce he isnt the most discerning player, but generally, i'm thinking that your "reads" are as much due to the cards he's been dealt as how he plays.

I've played games where i havent seen a flop until level 4. I've seen 8 flops and been raising like a mofo. So have y'all. The observant villian will certainly have catagorized me differently in these two scenarios, but im the same guy. I'm gonna play my level 4 hand for what it is, irregardless of my previous actions.

How many times have you called a "maniac's" push with Aj to been shown KK? Even if you have catagorized them accurately, they are still dealt the same cards as you, and wake up with a hand as often as a rock.

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Well, i just proofread (semi) what i wrote, and i guess i really haven't much else to say, although it seems incomplete. I suppose i'll just leave it at that, perhaps responses will spur my juices. I feel like i want to say more, but dont know what it is.

I'll leave it open-ended...hoping y'all can run with it.

What i want to know is:
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]How much weight can/should i put on previous actions?
[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Is this a part of my game that i can work on (like i say, i suck at reads), or, as the tone of this post suggests, am i correct in brushing off "reads" as vauge, as likely to induce mistakes in my play as to gain an edge?

Ok, this kid needs sleep, g'night