Classic wait to the river and bet here; yes,yes?

mrpurple · #1 05-06-2005, 03:30 AM

Villian is fairly unremarkable. No real reads becuase he has only been around a lap or so. And pokertracker lives on my other computer which is currently not working. He hasn't do done anything too noteworthy thus far though.

My thoughts are I'm massively ahead, he is almost always bluffing or has a worse ace with 3 outs or a pair with 2.

Yesterday, I would of raised the turn. I read a post today where here has QQ with a king on the flop and was bet into. Most advised to call it down so as not to fold out a bluff.

I'm trying to apply the same principle here. If he is bluffing I don't want to fold him out. If he has anything at all he will almost certainly call one more on the river.

The only way i lose bets is if he has a worse Ace. If he does I would expect a checkraise as opposed to him betting out.

Good plan, Yes, yes?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 5 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB folds.

Final Pot: 6.16 BB

rmarotti · #2 05-06-2005, 04:07 AM

I like it. Popping the turn wouldn't be bad.

New001 · #3 05-06-2005, 04:11 AM

I'd rather wait until the river because you'll often get a river bet out of them.

rmarotti · #4 05-06-2005, 04:13 AM

Meh. Maybe. A flush (or other) draw isnt paying on the river, but they will on the turn.

bobdibble · #5 05-06-2005, 04:19 AM

How will you feel about this line if a heart were to fall on the river?

Also, if you raise, you may get a lot of action from a weaker ace... and if he is on a flush draw, he will pay off on the turn, but not the river.

In a case like the QQ hand, the QQ is way ahead or way behind and will only get raised by a better hand, causing the QQ to lose the most when behind and make the least when ahead. Your hand doesn't have that characteristic. In your hand, if you get raised, it is likely by a worse hand.

I pop the turn.

edit: clarifed way ahead/way behind part..

New001 · #6 05-06-2005, 04:21 AM

True, I didn't see the two hearts.

undathesea · #7 05-06-2005, 10:06 AM

I don't like it. No, no. I hate to give a worst case scenario... but I want the BB to pay me off when he's drawing against me and doesn't hit his draw. Especially when it's a flush or a straight draw... cause I know eventually I'll end up paying off his draw 1 out of 3 times and the times I don't should help me more the cover the times I do.

I absolutely raise the turn... if he's UI on the river... he won't bet it anyway. But why should I let him draw to a flush or a straight on the river without paying me off when he doesn't hit it? It's a clear value bet to raise on the turn... he won't let his hand go anyway if he's drawing to something like a flush or a straight and if he has nothing he won't pay you off on the river anyway... raise it there for value. If he dumps on the turn... you get paid the same. If he calls... and dumps the river... you're +1BB. If a scare card comes he'll allow you to check behind going for the check raise.

Without the raise you're making the mistake and the donk is making the money off of your mistake by saving bets.

Fat Nicky · #8 05-06-2005, 10:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If a scare card comes he'll allow you to check behind going for the check raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you raise the turn and get called, you're checking behind a river [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]???

tytygoodnuts · #9 05-06-2005, 11:18 AM

Naw, I would still value bet the river.

undathesea · #10 05-06-2005, 11:20 AM

Hmmm... if the board doesn't pair with that heart... maybe this does call for a value bet here. I still think if he hits his draw he goes for the check-raise. If he opens, I call knowing I'm probably beat.

I guess I assume that if he calls my raise on turn... and I am showing strength, he assumes that I have an A... by calling I assume his draw is strong knowing that it's most likely that were both not holding an A. So, I will assume he's drawing to a flush with two hearts early... still could draw to a straight.

Malmuth would most definitely say value bet... so the 2+2 answer would be value bet and make yourself vulnerable to the check raise. I still think I might check behind though. Hard to say in the heat of the moment. Is that too weak-tight?

[Edit] I think this might be one of those cases where I give a donk too much credit... after rethinking it... I value bet for sure.