Showdown Bound?

theBruiser500 · #1 05-05-2005, 02:58 PM

On the river I think he has an ace, I could be wrong but I think he is value betting me. Do I need to see a showdown with this strong of a hand 3 way though?

PokerStars 30/60 Hold'em (3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: (7.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.50 BB

King Yao · #2 05-05-2005, 03:09 PM

I hate decisions like this when I don't know the player at all...because I think its close...I'd call and hope he has a pocket pair. With something like 77, he could be betting figuring if you have a better pair, you may fold, and if you have an Ace, he would call your bet anyway...so its really tough to fold on your hand. But you will lose a majority of the time....but more than 10% of the time? Close I think...so I'd call. At the least, your call may convince him in a future hand not to bluff you since he thinks your a river caller, so there's a tiny weeny bit of value in that.

Bluffoon · #3 05-05-2005, 03:29 PM

Do you know anything about this guy at all? The three bet from the sb could be a wide range of hands and the river bet could be a scare-card bluff.

I think you have some showdown value here against an unkown. The combination of showdown value and the information you will gain by calling make this a pretty easy call IMO unless you have information about this opponent to suggest otherwise.

danderso8 · #4 05-05-2005, 03:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The three bet from the sb could be a wide range of hands and the river bet could be a scare-card bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true that the 3-bet could be with a wide range of hands, but the villian here is the BB, not the SB. BB cold-called two raisers preflop, so his range of hands is significantly narrower.

I also think it could be a scare-card river bluff, but it's close. I'm speaking with very little 30/60 experience, and no short at that level, so not sure whether that makes a difference in the play.

-Dan

Jeffage · #5 05-05-2005, 03:47 PM

Ugh. Tough spot. You see, the problem is you beat virtually nothing he'd bet with here (besides a complete bluff). You raised pre and have bet the whole way so it's certainly plausible that ace helped you. Yet he still bets. He could have flopped a set of 8's and decided to play it oddly (plausible since he 3-bet pre then checked a board you'd expect him to bet at, even with nothing). I think he's either a weak player and rivered an ace and didn't want it checked or he may have flopped a powerful hand. It's also possible the ace gave him aces up. I think you beat nothing and can pitch it unless this guy has a history of creative desperation bets on the end.

Jeff

Bluffoon · #6 05-05-2005, 03:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The three bet from the sb could be a wide range of hands and the river bet could be a scare-card bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true that the 3-bet could be with a wide range of hands, but the villian here is the BB, not the SB. BB cold-called two raisers preflop, so his range of hands is significantly narrower.

I also think it could be a scare-card river bluff, but it's close. I'm speaking with very little 30/60 experience, and no short at that level, so not sure whether that makes a difference in the play.

-Dan

[/ QUOTE ]

Misread it thanks.

King Yao · #7 05-05-2005, 03:50 PM

after seeing dander's post, I realized that I mistakenly thought it was the SB that was your opponent through the River....sorry for my mistake.

Against the BB...I would lean towards folding. You have a lower chance to beat the BB than you had if it was the SB (as I had assumed in my previous post)....and that smaller chance is small enough to change my opinion from calling to folding.

Zygote · #8 06-06-2005, 05:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
after seeing dander's post, I realized that I mistakenly thought it was the SB that was your opponent through the River....sorry for my mistake.

Against the BB...I would lean towards folding. You have a lower chance to beat the BB than you had if it was the SB (as I had assumed in my previous post)....and that smaller chance is small enough to change my opinion from calling to folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I really can't see how or why this would change your opinion.

wheelz · #9 06-06-2005, 05:20 AM

The SB could be 3-betting a wide variety of hands against a button steal, the BB calling 2 bets means strength.

Lurker4 · #10 06-06-2005, 05:21 AM

does everyone else bet this flop? Hero has a gutshot and backdoor flush draw and would not like getting checkraised here, which is a possibility against the 3-betting SB and cold-calling 2 BB. I don't think a flop bet/flop bet + turn bet takes it down often enough here w/the PF action.