OOP AA Hand - 100 NL

[Ojo_Rojo]

Please comment on this AA hand, played from the blinds.
Villain is a pretty standard VPIP 29.0 PFR 3.0, and I had seen him do nothing extraordinary.

The flop smooth call worried me, he took a while to think about it. Would you bet on the turn here, and fold to a raise?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter

MP2 ($151.93)
MP3 ($91)
CO ($86.88)
Button ($81.5)
SB ($77.86)
Hero ($183.15)
UTG ($32.05)
UTG+1 ($108.79)
MP1 ($96.5)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5.5</font>, UTG+1 calls $5.50, MP2 folds, SB folds.

Flop: ($15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, UTG+1 calls $10.

Turn: ($35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $15</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $50

Many thanks,

Ojo_Rojo

[fuzzbox]

What do you put him on that you fold here ?
If he has flush then you have 9 outs to beat him. He is giving you pretty good odds to hit one of those 9 outs .. AND you might be ahead.

I check/call and play a river.
I might even check/raise if I was feeling frisky.

[noggindoc]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you put him on that you fold here ?
If he has flush then you have 9 outs to beat him. He is giving you pretty good odds to hit one of those 9 outs .. AND you might be ahead.

I check/call and play a river.
I might even check/raise if I was feeling frisky.

[/ QUOTE ]

[PokerFink]

Way too passive. I think he has AQ. I would probably have potted it again on the turn.

What clubs could he be calling you with? You have the A and the Q is on the board, so KcQc is out. KcJc? Did he limp UTG+1 and call with 8c9c?

[Ojo_Rojo]

I agree I did play it far too passively. As soon as I clicked "Fold" I felt sick. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

It does seem unlikely villain has a flush, so I'm only behind a flopped set. I'm guilty of seeing monsters under the bed, and should have potted the turn, I think.

Many thanks,

Ojo_Rojo

[PinkSteel]

Even if he has the flush, you have outs to a better one, and 4 to the house. You're getting pot odds to call that are on par with your draw -- a little over 3:1 -- not to mention implied odds.

[meow_meow]

Oh man.
Most likely he has a big queen, drawing to 2 outs. 55, 44 are less likely obviously, but still possible. Flush is very unlikely, but as has been already mentioned, you still have the ace.

You should be thinking about how to get him all-in.

[TrailofTears]

Just reading this hand makes me feel weak. I have to have a pretty great read to put villain on a flopped set here, and anything else he has I am calling this turn and throwing out a blocking bet on the river UI.

-Trail

[MarkL444]

I would lead the turn for 20-25ish.

[MarkL444]

also, having checked the turn, i would rather check raise than check fold. very weak