Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You've Gotta Swallow

[grandgnu]

Last time I saw him, he was hitting on Shana Hiatt. This time around, he ended his exit interview with "you've gotta swallow". Too frigging funny

[moot]

Scotty kinda played like a goon near the end. His play with 98 was just plain retarded. The other guy's committed to call with almost any hand, and since he's not particularly crazy Scotty's gotta know that when he does get called he's gonna be an underdog.

And what the hell is up with K8 of clubs? Damn...

[Sykes]

Kc 8c = Amazing

What was scotty doing with 9s 8s?? What an amateur move.

[Smoothcall]

Yes, that was a bad play by scotty! Don't know if it was the alcohol, or if he has some leaks.

[grandgnu]

Uh, what does any of that have to do with him tossing in about Shana swallowing?

The last time he was interviewed by her that I recall, they showed his wife in the audience, then him telling Shana that she distracted him (i.e. he was putting the moves on her)

This time around she seemed a bit uncomfortable around him during the exit interview and he tossed in his comment about swallowing. Obviously he's wicked into her and/or he's being put up to it by some other people in the poker world (perhaps there's a bet going that he'll toss out comments like that?)

Anyway, it was hilarious, and someone needs to shuffle the deck 7 times to ensure randomness. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[MisterKing]

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Yes, that was a bad play by scotty! Don't know if it was the alcohol, or if he has some leaks.

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I thought about this for a while, and it wasn't a minor mistake. It was COLOSSAL. Consider the following...

For those that didn't watch, here's the backdrop... There are four players at the table, and Scotty is playing fairly wild. Two hands ago, Scotty (holding ATo) raised Daniel's turn bet (holding KQo) and then Scotty folded after being re-raised all in. The board read 7Q5[9], with a second spade coming on the turn. The flop had gone check-check. This resulted in a loss of about 45% of Scotty's stack.

The next hand, Scotty picked up QJo and moved in for 400K with only Daniel left to act after him (Daniel holding approx 2M or more). Daniel squeezed Kc8c and correctly called, making himself a 58/42 favorite. This was the start of a trend... Anyhow, the flop came JTT, the turn an offsuit 9, and no help for Daniel meaning Scotty doubled up and finished the hand with just about 1M in chips.

The very next hand (and not just the very next TV hand, according to the broadcast), John Stolzmann, a 23 year old college student from Wisconsin who has been pushed off of hands before by Scotty, picked up Kc8c on the button and makes it 200K to go, with blinds at 25K/50K. His stack before the bet was approximately 575K. Here's where the fure really starts to fly.

Scotty, in the BB I believe, wakes up with 9s8s and moves all in pretty rapidly. With the 25K SB dead in the pot, and approx 10K in antes also dead in there, John is getting about 800:370 to call, or 2.16:1.

John starts to think this is a pretty attractive price on a call. He doesn't need to think he has the best hand to make it. He's the shortest stack of the four remaining players. He's got 4th place money locked up and would have only 7BB left if he folded. Did I mention he was getting 2.16:1 on a call?

So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here? We've seen Scotty push with QJo recently, and have to assume that AA-66 is also in his range. That leaves the question of what other non-pairs are likely to be in the mix. Frankly, four handed I think AK-A4 suited and not, KQ-K7 both ways, QJ-Q9o plus Q8s, JT-J7 both ways, T9-T7s, 98s and 97s, and probably a few of the suited one and two gappers down to 76/75. This is a HUGE range, with many of the hands being dogs to John's K8.

A few examples: John's hand is 34.5% vs K9o, 43.5% vs A7o, 41% vs A5s, 46% vs red 7's, 38.5% vs Ac 6c, and 32% vs 9h9s. This last statistic is very, very telling, because it holds all the way up to QQ -- even if one of the queens is a club. Scotty would need to have a pair bigger than Queens, a dominating suited King, AK, or... well or nothing, because that's it. That's all I can think of that's better than 68.35% vs K8s. Knowing this, is there any way at all John cannot call? I doubt it.

Anyone out there with PokerStove able to run a sim with John's hand vs the range I identified above for Scotty? I'm guessing John had a 4 to 7% overlay from the pot -- definitely enough to gambool.

[BarronVangorToth]

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So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here?

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Too bad Scotty and John didn't have pieces of each other or else this really would be more amusing.

Paul Phillips' Chart Ahoy!

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[MicroBob]

nice analysis.

another point is that when they ran through the prize-money at the end it looked like 3rd and 4th place money were pretty close anyway. it went kind of fast and i don't feel like looking it up but i think it was something like:

4th - 315k
3rd - 390k
2nd - 750k
1st - 1.51 mil


if this is right then there's no point in just trying to hang on hoping someone else busts-out which i believe could have been the only other legitimate excuse for a short-stack to fold here with those kind of pot-odds.

[MisterKing]

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So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here?

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Too bad Scotty and John didn't have pieces of each other or else this really would be more amusing.

Paul Phillips' Chart Ahoy!

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

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Yeah, I read Paul's analysis last week... interesting stuff but this really is a very different situation with basically no chance of the two players having a piece of each other. Love the 2+2 mag articles, Barron!!

[BarronVangorToth]

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Love the 2+2 mag articles, Barron!!

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Glad you enjoy them. "On the Edge" parts 4-9 are in place for the June-November 2+2 mags. Hope you likewise enjoy them.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com