Middle Set Facing Much Action

Jazza · #1 05-04-2005, 09:51 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($97.35)
UTG ($94.55)
UTG+1 ($90.45)
Hero ($106.75)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($102.1)
MP3 ($254.43)
CO ($100)
Button ($117.65)
SB ($134.25)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
2 folds, Hero calls $1, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4, MP3 calls $4, CO raises to $20, SB folds, BB calls $20, Hero ??

no reads except for MP3 is a 74/15

I see two lines here:

1)a pot committing reraise

2)flat call and fold the turn UI

what do you do?

Ghazban · #2 05-04-2005, 10:22 AM

Why are those your only two options? Folding would not be terrible if you respect CO's play. If he has the made straight, you don't have odds to call hoping to fill on the turn as he can bet enough to prevent you from seeing the river. If he has a bigger set, you're in even worse shape. About the only thing he can have that you are in good shape against is an OESFD and, in that case, you aren't as far ahead as you'd like to be (actually, he could have bottom set, too, I suppose, in which case you're way ahead). Would he do this with a bare flush draw only?

If you call his raise, do you expect he'll bet big again on the turn? I've noticed a fair number of opponents who put a lot of pressure on you on the flop but then check behind or underbet the turn when they don't have the nuts. If he's one of those guys, calling and reevaluating on the turn can be optimal.

MikeL · #3 05-04-2005, 10:41 AM

I'm folding here. CO limped in, which is characteristic for a JT hand. Plus, CO's just 5x
raised you; not characteristic of someone just trying to
buy a free river card. Bottom line is that you are
NOT getting proper odds to draw for a paired board.

Regards,
Mike L.

spoohunter · #4 05-04-2005, 10:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm folding here. CO limped in, which is characteristic for a JT hand. Plus, CO's just 5x
raised you; not characteristic of someone just trying to
buy a free river card. Bottom line is that you are
NOT getting proper odds to draw for a paired board.

Regards,
Mike L.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 3:1 and I'd BET you got some sweet implied odds. Plus you could be winning.

Ghazban · #5 05-04-2005, 10:55 AM

You're only getting 3:1 if MP overcalls. The majority of the time, hero is behind here (assuming CO is reasonable).

Jazza · #6 05-04-2005, 11:31 AM

getting better than 3-1 odds i really want to see that turn card at least

spoohunter · #7 05-04-2005, 11:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're only getting 3:1 if MP overcalls. The majority of the time, hero is behind here (assuming CO is reasonable).

[/ QUOTE ]

The BB already called.

swolfe · #8 05-04-2005, 11:41 AM

BB's flat call concerns me. what kind of stats do you have on him? he could be drawing, or he could be slowplaying something.

if you call, MP is likely to call too.

i'm torn between a push and a call, and i think it depends on my read of BB.

also, what have you got on CO?

Jazza · #9 05-04-2005, 11:43 AM

nope, had not stats on BB, only on MP3

Ghazban · #10 05-04-2005, 11:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're only getting 3:1 if MP overcalls. The majority of the time, hero is behind here (assuming CO is reasonable).

[/ QUOTE ]

The BB already called.

[/ QUOTE ]

My mistake; I misread the original post. BB flat calling a raise and a (substantial) reraise on this very coordinated flop is a big concern (unless he's a flush-chasing donkey).