Middle pair, OESD... played poorly

atnels · #1 05-03-2005, 09:40 PM

Nice table. MP3, CO, and Button are all very loose/passive preflop and postflop. UTG+2 is tight preflop and passive postflop. SB is total unknown - this is his second hand at the table.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, Hero calls, MP3 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, BB folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB 3-bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Okay... I didn't like this raise as soon as I did it. I took a minute to think about it before I pulled the trigger, but here was my line of thought:

I've got middle pair, an OESD, backdoor draw to the 3rd nut flush, and of course my runner-runner royal.

Outs:
3 non-club aces = 3 outs
3 non-club nines = 2 outs
2 non-club queens = 0.5 outs
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] = as 0.5 outs
2 remaining jacks = 1 out
Everything else (the backdoor draws) = 1 out

This gave me a little shy of 8 outs, and I figured raising would have a few possible benefits. First, since the players behind me didn't mind calling bets, I could push my equity edge here. Second, aggression on this scary board might let me pick up the pot without a fight on the turn. Third, if the raise buys me the button and SB is timid and only got a small piece of the flop, I could check the turn though if I think it's prudent.

So, I raise... and SB reraises. With no read, giving him the benefit of the doubt says KT or KJ - since I'd hope he'd raise KK,JJ,TT, or AQ. But maybe not. Either way, I feel like I'm clearly behind.

Turn: (8 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

So that didn't help anyone, but I've still got 7 outs so it's an easy call.

River: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+2 folds, Action to Hero....

So, here I'm not sure of the correct line - I'm still behind the flopped sets, flopped straight, and KJ, but now I'm ahead of KT and all pairs. I'm thinking raise....

I'm especially interested in opinions on the flop raise, but river opinions are welcome also.

- Andy

davelin · #2 05-03-2005, 11:01 PM

I generally fold this pre-flop. Flop raise is fine. I'd probably raise the river and kick the cat when 3-betted.

Firefly · #3 05-03-2005, 11:40 PM

I don't mind the flop raise... but i'd rather keep everyone in to pay for your draw.
I'd raise the river, SB is *probally* betting something like KT or the like... I'd raise the river and call a 3-bet, calling just feels weak.

Agthorr · #4 05-04-2005, 01:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3 non-club aces = 3 outs
3 non-club nines = 2 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

They're not entirely clean outs. They give you a straight, but you have to split the pot with Qx.