Going against the numbers of eastbay's calc

[J-Lo]

$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.

blinds 150/300
UTG 3000
button/me 2800
SB 500
BB 1500

UTG min raises, been doing it the entire time, i push w/ AQ, he calls w/ K7, do i want him calling?


blinds 200-400 $50+5
UTG 2500
button 450
me 1000
BB 6000

I pikc up TT and push, he calls w/ Q7o.

Are any of these plays wrong?

edit: all stack sized are before posting

[BDarch]

I like the second and the third example but in the first I would definately call. You said he had been raising a lot so you are probably ahead of him and the BB could outfold you into the money if he wanted to, unless those stack sizes are before posting. If those are before posting then I may consider folding.

[FatalError]

1. Folding and playing for 2nd here is alright if you both have exactly 600 left after paying your blinds, the chance he'll call if you fold is worth it, plus you'll hit your blinds next both all in and can take your "coin flip" there

2. Good play, he makes a bad call and you did'nt want this call, you want free money with no showdown whenever you're less than a 65% favorite imho

3. I do this too

[microbet]

i'm playing so i can't really think about it now, but

eastbay's program doesn't handle 3 ways, so you account for when BB calls in the first case

in eastbay's program you have to select the ranges of hands then it gives $EV, you can't really say it gives any particular recommendation without stating the hand ranges.


edit: no 3 ways yet - it is a feature that is expected to come

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

i put in the stacks, i give the range of hands of BB the loosest, i give myself AQ, and use the call option. you calculator gives it a call w/ +$EV of 1.4%

Am i using this wrong?


edit: argh!! can't get a place to host this picture.

http://photos.yahoo.com/junaid0

not much better, but if u save it to your HDD, then open it, u can see what i did--- i think.

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$30+3 200-400 blinds

UTG 1800
Button 3000
me 600
BB 600

so button raises, i have AQ, do i call or fold? He's been doing this for a while. Eastbay's calc says call.... i folded.


[/ QUOTE ]

My calculator says nothing about this scenario. You haven't given enough information.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

i put in the stacks, i give the range of hands of BB the loosest, i give myself AQ, and use the call option. you calculator gives it a call w/ +$EV of 1.4%

Am i using this wrong?


edit: argh!! can't get a place to host this picture.

http://photos.yahoo.com/junaid0

not much better, but if u save it to your HDD, then open it, u can see what i did--- i think.

[/ QUOTE ]
The part that eastbays program can't handle is what is the chances that the BB calls making it a 3 way.


The logic behind folding is that the BB will have to survive at least one all in and maybe you can squeak into the money.

I think calling is the right play. The odds are the button doesn't have AA, KK,QQ, or AK. He would be pushing with a lot of hands that you dominate. If you win, you will have a stack where you have a chance to play for 1st. If you fold, you are not assured of 3rd. If the BB wins one his hands, you will have to survive an all in.

[Scuba Chuck]

Hand 1: I like the fold. Poker, a thinking mans' game. Then you'll be pissed when he doubles up with his 27o, and you coulda played this hand. At least, that's how I feel when this happens. I still like the fold. Very smart to consider stacksizes/blinds...

[microbet]

There aren't nearly enough chips posted in the first hand. Or is it a 6 seater or something?

[gumpzilla]

These numbers look rounded, so one concern is: if you and BB both bust on this hand, who wins 3rd place? I suspect in the actual situation this would not be a real problem, but in that case one would need to know whether or not BB had you covered before posting, as that would strongly affect BB's decision. If BB covered you, I think he's substantially more likely to call you since you have to win the main and he has to lose the side in order for him to bust.

Folding is definitely worth considering, but I'm not convinced. BB will call with any two if you fold; it sounds like button has been raising a lot, so he should be put on a fairly loose range. Let's say he's 60% against a random hand. So basically 40% of the time, in this case, the short stack gets to hang around, and you're left with 1 BB. The short stack should now sit there and let you blind out in the next three hands. In this situation, I think you're going to be busting out fourth at least half of the time, maybe more because you can't do anything to discourage both of the bigger stacks getting in with you.

So by folding, I think you're still probably heading for 4th place 25% of the time. This isn't that much better than the 40% or so (I'm being pessimistic, I think 35% wouldn't be unreasonable) that you bust out calling right here (EDIT: Hmm. This does assume BB folds, and as I pointed out in my first paragraph, that's not a good assumption if he really has you covered, and may not be a good assumption anyway. Him coming in is basically entirely bad for you, I would think, if he covers you. If you cover him, then I think there's no problem.), and you markedly increase your chances of 1st or 2nd by calling and winning, so there's a fair amount of upside to calling as well. I think a call is probably indicated. It's an interesting hand though.