Flop two overcards+gutshot+flush draw, guy moves in

[pergesu]

No read so far. Hated my hand after all the callers, but the flop wasn't so bad.

Then he moved in.

I figured if he did it with just a pair, I had as many as 18 outs. But for this call to be +CEV, I only needed 14 outs. Another consideration is that there's a player yet to act behind me.

Who's gambling here, who's not, and why?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) converter

MP2 (t800)
Hero (t710)
Button (t1610)
SB (t975)
BB (t580)
UTG (t1365)
UTG+1 (t910)
MP1 (t1050)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, Button calls t90, SB calls t75, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t360) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB folds.


SB moves in for 885

[brizzypare]

Keep in mind he could have Ax of clubs and you could be drawing thinner than you think.

[HighestCard]

Id say its an easy fold, theres too many people at the table to have an effective number of outs still in the deck, and your not pushed for chips...you can pick a better spot later

[elonkra]

Buy-in?

[lastchance]

I personally think it's much easier to fold preflop.

I think I call, but it's not a good spot to be in.

[pergesu]

Buyin is $10+1

[ QUOTE ]
I personally think it's much easier to fold preflop.

I think I call, but it's not a good spot to be in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not normally playing KQ, but you're folding when it passes to you in CO?

[bigredlemon]

Pot is 360 and SB moves in for 885 on the flop.

You vs.
TPTK + flush draw (AcJc): 5% chance, 27 vs 73 against
TPTK /w Ac (AcJh): 35% chance, 56 vs. 44 favourite
A set (9h9d): 15% chance, 33 vs 67 against
two pair (Jd9d): 25% chance, 42 vs 58 against
overpair (KhKd): 10% chance, 46 vs 54 against
straight flush draw (Tc8c): 10% chance, 74 vs 27 favourite

= about 48.5% pot equity
you only need 30% to call, strickly from pot odds stand point. But of course no one wants to go all in on a draw here, and my chance % presumes he's a little on the aggressive side.

[elonkra]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot is 360 and SB moves in for 885 on the flop.

You vs.
TPTK + flush draw (AcJc): 5% chance, 27 vs 73 against
TPTK /w Ac (AcJh): 35% chance, 56 vs. 44 favourite
A set (9h9d): 15% chance, 33 vs 67 against
two pair (Jd9d): 25% chance, 42 vs 58 against
overpair (KhKd): 10% chance, 46 vs 54 against
straight flush draw (Tc8c): 10% chance, 74 vs 27 favourite

= about 48.5% pot equity
you only need 30% to call, strickly from pot odds stand point. But of course no one wants to go all in on a draw here, and my chance % presumes he's a little on the aggressive side.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stupid Question: I have doubts about whether I'll ever be able to do that kind of math (or even get in the ballpark) quickly enough to consistently make correct decisions based thereon. Do most successful players have to be able to do this? I'm basically having a lot of difficulty counting outs, figuring my chances of hitting, figuring my hit's chances of beating my opponent's hand, and coming to a mathematically-based decision based on these factors in the context of the particular size of the pot and/or my opponent's bet. Is having this sort of difficulty w/pot odds a normal and sometimes prolonged stage in the progression of becoming a better player?

[Tilt]

You should be able to roughly recite your chances against different hands, and figure out which hands you think are most likely.

I make this call, no question. I think a set or two pair is unlikely. They want to milk your continuation bets before moving in. Truth be told, players sometimes make this kind of move with a small pp if they figure you for AK/Q. I think you are a favorite, and only AXc worries me.

[SNOWBALL138]

Granted that you would rather be the one pushing here, BUT:

I call this soooooo quickly. If you bust out, open up another table. The whole point of playing these shallow stack SNGs is to have a good hourly rate. Passing up edges like this goes against that. The pot is big. CALL!