odds on pp to a set? And more pp play...

Leaky Game · #1 04-29-2005, 10:30 AM

I think it's 7.5 to 1, correct?

I just got bullets cracked by a smaller pp for the second time in an hour, the latest is posted below. I'm so short stacked because the guy to my right kept chasing and hitting. I was pissed about it but the reason I'm playing Party is for idiots just like this [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img], it just bit me in the arse today. I'm just trying to make sure I'm not missing anything. I was short stack on both occasions and the 2/3 continuation bet on the flop almost put me all in, so I pushed. I had raised 4xBB plus one for callers.

Am I doing the math right on the pp to a set? I started keeping track of when I hit a set with them and (not a big stat set to infer anything but..) It took me 12 pps to hit my first set. 2nd was the very next one, now I'm up to 21. Seems odd. Not sure if this belongs in the probability section.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($50.41)
MP ($102.62)
CO ($78.35)
Hero ($11.75)
SB ($30.65)
BB ($28.73)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50, UTG folds, CO folds.

Flop: ($7.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero calls $8.75 (All-In), BB calls $8.75.

Turn: ($24.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($24.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $24.75

He showed a set of 7s. Being so short stacked, I know I didn't have another play. Although being so short stacked, this guy shouldn't have called my raise because even if he stacks me, he's not getting 7.5 back on his money....right? Half this is to make sure I play smaller pp correctly when I get them....I'm leaking.

spoohunter · #2 04-29-2005, 10:33 AM

Listen, take this advice to heart. Or, ignore it, but remember it.

You really must start to UNDERSTAND the nature of poker. You have to divorce results and approach pure theory as much as humanly possible.

Take a step back. If you care about the money stop.

You may have to learn the hard way... as most of us do, but the way you are approaching the game right now YOU CANNOT WIN. Start thinking in terms of profit over hundreds of hands, and realize you could not have played this hand any other way. Most of all, keep reading, because there are some of the basic elements of understanding in your post, and that is agood start.

Leaky Game · #3 04-29-2005, 10:38 AM

I know I couldn't have done anything different on the hand I posted.

I was hoping to first, make sure my 7.5 to 1 is correct when holding a pp to flop a set. Secondly, to see how you guys play PP. This was 6 max...do you guys limp all pp and call any raises assuming you think you can get 7.5 times the raise back, regardless of position?

swolfe · #4 04-29-2005, 10:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I know I couldn't have done anything different on the hand I posted.

I was hoping to first, make sure my 7.5 to 1 is correct when holding a pp to flop a set. Secondly, to see how you guys play PP. This was 6 max...do you guys limp all pp and call any raises assuming you think you can get 7.5 times the raise back, regardless of position?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, i prefer being able to make 10X to cover the overhead of flopping a set and losing

PinkSteel · #5 04-29-2005, 11:18 AM

7.5 to 1 is correct for odds to flop a set from a PP.

If I were BB in this hand, I might argue that calling your pfr was justified on two grounds:

(1) It is 6max, I do have a PP, and you are shortstacked, so I may have a winning hand against you even if I don't flop a set. A little thin, but certainly possible, especially if you appear LAGgy or tilty.

(2) There are two other callers yet to act on your raise. Both UTG and CO are deepstacked, and if either of them calls, I get my odds.

I don't play 6max, but at full ring I use the 5/10 rule for calling w/ PPs (which I learned from reading this forum): call if raise is <5% of smaller of your & Villain's stacks; fold if raise is >10%; and use your judgement in between.

-Skeme- · #6 04-29-2005, 11:24 AM

Here's the 5-10 rule from Bob Ciaffone's book PL & NL Poker. It words nice for calling with PPs for set value.

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When contemplating calling a raise because your position is good, you have a clear call if the raise is less than 5% of your stack, and a clear fold if it is more than 10%. In between those numbers, use your judgement.
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