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Old 04-28-2005, 03:12 PM
RedeemerKing RedeemerKing is offline
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Default Odds question

This situation presented itself to me when I was playing 2-4 on Partypoker. What are the odds when you have 3 to a straight in succession and 3 to a flush after the flop. What are the odds of making either the straight or the flush. Forget about overcards and runner runner two pair or 3 of a kind as possible ways to win. Sometimes on Party you will be getting over 20-1 on your money after the flop and that seems like enough to call but would like to know exact odds.

Thx
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Old 04-28-2005, 03:20 PM
Bodhi Bodhi is offline
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Default Re: Odds question

Treat these backdoor draws as approximately 1.5 outs each. That means that on a loose table, you should be calling these double backdoor draws on the flop for one bet very frequently.
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Old 04-28-2005, 05:15 PM
binions binions is offline
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Default Re: Odds question

[ QUOTE ]
This situation presented itself to me when I was playing 2-4 on Partypoker. What are the odds when you have 3 to a straight in succession and 3 to a flush after the flop. What are the odds of making either the straight or the flush. Forget about overcards and runner runner two pair or 3 of a kind as possible ways to win. Sometimes on Party you will be getting over 20-1 on your money after the flop and that seems like enough to call but would like to know exact odds.

Thx

[/ QUOTE ]

23:1 on the backdoor flush draw
21.5:1 on the backdoor 3-straight
11:1 combined
2 cards give you 15 outs
2 cards give you 12 outs
6 cards give you 9 outs
6 cards give you 8 outs
6 cards give you 4 outs


To get there, you will have to probably call another bet on the turn. Which makes the play less profitable than if it were a true 1 outer where you can make your hand on the turn.

Also, some of the times you hit the 11:1, you have to nail a 4 outer on the river. For example, you have A7, the board is 68Q. You have a three straight, and sometimes you make a straight when it comes T then 9 for a gutshot, or 4 then 5 for a gutshot. You may not have the odds to call a gutshot once the bet doubles, however.

The plus side is that people are less likely to believe you made a runner runner hand, so you usually get paid off on the end.

Bottom line, it's probably not a good play on a rainbow board without an overcard or a pair to go along with it unless you are getting 15:1.

And if you're against a 2 flush, that takes away 4 of your straight card outs, so you need even better pot odds.
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