Poker Logic... Is this correct?

[Fatdogs12]

I started to realize that I only had a superfical (definitional) knowledge of pot odds, implied odds, effective odds and reverse implied odds so I wanted to take a theoretical situation and see if you guys agree.

The situation:

It's early in a tournament and you are dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. You have 800 chips at this point and so does your opponent in question. Now we are going to start on the flop. The pot has T150 in it and the flop comes J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Now a person bets T150 in early position bringing the pot to T300 (and his chips to T650). Everyone folds to you. Now this person I figure probably has a better hand than you. But I wanted to bring all the odds into the situation first.

First of all your current pot odds are 1:2 or 50%, you are risking 150 for 300. Now we know most likely he is going to bet on the next street at least the same amount. We also know that the chance of hitting a spade on the next card is about 18%. or 1:5.5. The odds right now obviously don't justify a call. However lets say that we know that we could get all of his chips (an extra 650) on the next card if we do hit. That would be a total pot of 950. So essentially we are risking 150 to get 950 or 1.63, so these are our implied odds. Now this is a slightly positive number for us (+EV in chips). Now at first I considered that if a spade did come off on the next card he probably would not bet and your implied odds would not as high. However that is probably not correct because he probably is not going to place you on a spade flush draw esp. if he checked to you and you checked it back.

So in this case this would be a slightly T-chip profitable move... does this logic make sense so far? Now I figure though that in general because it's just a slight edge it's not going to be a profitable move because there will be enough players when they see that spade that will slow down to bring down your odds.

What I really want to know is if my analysis of this makes sense.... I think obviously though this is not a profitable EV in real money move though because you will be risking a lot and messing up your chances of placing drastically on such a low odds move.

[zambonidrivr]

Don't play this hand preflop. He may be drawing to a higher straight, or a higher flush. All in all bad starting hand slection. Yes, you have 50% odds, but those are odds of completing your hand... not winning the pot. Would not play this in levels 1-3 unless you are in the BB and it is called to you. Does not sound like this is the case as $150 in the pot. What happened?

JK

[Fatdogs12]

That isn't the point... I know it's not a hand to play preflop. I just wanted to see if the logic makes sense.

[zambonidrivr]

okay sorry.

1.) logic makes sense
2.) work on pre-flop strategy
..good chance you are drawing dead and way way behind

[J-Lo]

push.

[hummusx]

Did I miss the part where you figured in the odds of making a straight? You also failed to consider the chances of making a second best flush.

I think one thing that's missing from the whole scenario is position, stack sizes, number of players, etc. If this is short handed and the blinds are 75/150 this is a completely different scenario that if it's a full table with 15/30 blinds.

[pooh74]

I think this hand you have to put him on possible holdings and then see what your outs are...flush/straight = 17 outs...id discount a couple for drawing dead to his better flush/straight...but, he may also have only a J at this point and so your Q may be an out too (thats why I am only discounting 2 outs here).

I think here, you need to see 2 cards...you're not given the odds for 1 card, but you are for 2.

If I found myself in this situation, Id push in a heartbeat bc:

1. If I call and miss on turn, I will have to call an even bigger bet perhaps be close to pot committed.

2. Pushing gives me a lot of fold equity which may allow me to take down the pot right now.

3. Im guaranteed to see 4th and 5th streets in the event I am called...no more decisions to make.

The caveat here is that I wouldnt like to be in this situation early on in the first place...but once you are there, push is the best strategy.

[shefhammer]

[ QUOTE ]
..good chance you are drawing dead

[/ QUOTE ]

There's zero chance he is drawing dead.

[zambonidrivr]

thank you. yes.

... there's a good chance you are well behind