Muck this boat?

Rocaix · #1 04-27-2005, 01:07 AM

Prima 5/10 Full

Relevant Stack Sizes

Me 2300
Villain 1700

I've seen Villain playing 25/50 before, might be rebuilding his roll in 5/10. Anyways Villain seems fairly good, very agressive and tricky. Doesn't seem to get out of line though.

I'm Dealt 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button.

Folded to Villain who raises to $40 from MP+2. I call from the button. Everybody else folds.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Pot($82)

Villain bets $80, I make it $240, he calls.

Turn: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Pot ($562)

Villain checks, I bet $400, he calls.

River: 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Pot ($1362)

Villain pushes, I ???

--------------------------

Does anyone think about mucking here getting about 2.3 to 1? Villain has been very solid so far, and it's highly unlikey he has spades here. So the only hand that he's likely to have here that I beat is AK, but that seems to be a little bit out of line for him.

freemoney · #2 04-27-2005, 01:13 AM

you are getting about 2.4-1 here i think pot is too big/not deep enough to fold. i mean itd be weird for AA/KK to play the turn this way, i think its an easy call if he has you beat so be it

radioheadfan · #3 04-27-2005, 02:17 AM

It's $1000 for you to call. Looks like villian is going for gold here with his aces or kings full. I don't see why he would play AK this way. Maybe he had something like QJs when he raised, and had a gutshot royal/flush/straight draw. When the spade he pushes putting YOU on AK?

I dunno. From the looks of his betting pattern, it looks like he thinks he has you beat and wants your entire stack. He's either doing this with a flush (low probability) or a boat that beats yours. If villian is good and doesn't get out of line much, this looks like a fold you can make.

Another possibility is that he's holding AK and also puts YOU on AK so by pushing he's trying to take the existing pot rather than chop by check-calling.

I hate mucking boats so I probably call here....but I can see how folding might be reasonable.

Tough hand.

technologic · #4 04-27-2005, 04:18 AM

my gut reaction was thinking, there's no WAY he has AA/KK, hence i would've called if i were in the hand at the time.

but now as i'm rethinking the hand through, the way you describe the oppoenent, there's no way he's getting 170 BBs in there without the best of it. as tough as it would be, if it came down to it in this situation, i'd muck this boat. he's getting a bad price to draw for a flush on the turn out of position. my guess would be he's fairly afraid you'll check behind if he checks, and any other bet other than an overbet would look suspicious, ie a value bet, if he's not sure that you are this strong.

really really sucks to laydown tho.

Popinjay · #5 04-27-2005, 04:32 AM

based on your description I think you can fold. I assume you had an image of being pretty tight... like does he think you would raise a flush draw on the flop? if your image is tight like that and you wouldn't raise a flush draw then you can fold here.

this is pretty similar to ElDiablo's c-r turn post with big hands. villain here does not want to do that because he probably knows that hero has a made hand, but probably not such a made hand that he would for sure be putting all his money in on the flop or turn. instead of c-r'ing the turn villain is attempting to get all his money in with a veiled river stop and go

but then again maybe he is making a bad play with the spades? afterall he is at 5/10 and not 25/50, maybe he's on tilt? i'd have to be there to be able to make a correct judgment

Rocaix · #6 04-27-2005, 04:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

this is pretty similar to ElDiablo's c-r turn post with big hands. villain here does not want to do that because he probably knows that hero has a made hand, but probably not such a made hand that he would for sure be putting all his money in on the flop or turn. instead of c-r'ing the turn villain is attempting to get all his money in with a veiled river stop and go

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting, although i think in this hand if villain check-raised the turn to say like 800, and then pushes the river I would be far more inclined to call, getting great odds at the end. Although that may be a leak.