Hey math people, got a question for you

[Bigwig]

How confident are these numbers after 805 SNG's? I included the ITM and finish distribution, in case that's important. I'm looking for a number like +/- 5%, or something like that. If it's not really possible to give a very specific number, give me your best guesstimate.

Thanks a bunch!

805 $50+5's

Finish:
1. 102
2. 129
3. 109

ROI: 25.7%
ITM: 42.2%

[valenzuela]

aleomagus confidence spreadsheet might work for you. I dont remember the link however. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[AleoMagus]

confidence calculator says...

99% confidence that actual profit is between $6.09 and $22.42 per tourney
95% confidence that actual profit is between $8.04 and $20.47 per tourney
85% confidence that actual profit is between $9.69 and $18.82 per tourney
75% confidence that actual profit is between $10.61 and $17.90 per tourney
65% confidence that actual profit is between $11.29 and $17.22 per tourney

60.00% confidence that actual profit is between $11.59 and $16.92 per tourney

this spreadsheet is found at www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet

Regards
Brad S

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
confidence calculator says...

99% confidence that actual profit is between $6.09 and $22.42 per tourney
95% confidence that actual profit is between $8.04 and $20.47 per tourney
85% confidence that actual profit is between $9.69 and $18.82 per tourney
75% confidence that actual profit is between $10.61 and $17.90 per tourney
65% confidence that actual profit is between $11.29 and $17.22 per tourney

60.00% confidence that actual profit is between $11.59 and $16.92 per tourney

this spreadsheet is found at www.aleomagus.freeservers.com/spreadsheet

Regards
Brad S

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, that's exactly what I was looking for!

Thanks a bunch.

Also, since I have over 3000 SNG's from the $20 & $30 level at a higher ROI than my $50's, don't you think it's safe to assume that I'm slightly more confident in the numbers than the 805 number would suggest?

[AleoMagus]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, since I have over 3000 SNG's from the $20 & $30 level at a higher ROI than my $50's, don't you think it's safe to assume that I'm slightly more confident in the numbers than the 805 number would suggest?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I'd agree with that. How much more confident exactly is a tough question if we are to assume (rightly) that SNGs are different at 20+2, 30+3 and 50+5.

Regards
Brad S

[Slim Pickens]

Assuming that is your "true" finish distribution, the statistical confidence intervals look something like this.

Your ROI of 25.7% is:
27% of the time within +-2% of your true ROI
62% within +-5%
92% within +-10%

Your observed ITM of 42.2% is:
45% of the time within +-1% of your true ITM
76% within +-2%
92% within +-3%
>99% within +-5%

[abcd1234]

*cough* bullsh1t *cough*

Are you sure you didn't leave out any tournaments like when you were "tired", "not concentrating", or "unlucky"(eg losing AA to someones QJo).

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
*cough* bullsh1t *cough*

Are you sure you didn't leave out any tournaments like when you were "tired", "not concentrating", or "unlucky"(eg losing AA to someones QJo).

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh. Check out my Poker Prophecy numbers. vonMises.

Why am I even bothering with this?