TPTK in position, played poorly?

Madmartigan21 · #1 04-25-2005, 04:35 PM

CO had played pretty tightly thus far. No real read on SB.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
2 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, MP2 folds, CO calls.

Flop: (8 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, CO calls, Hero calls.

A raise here doesn't protect my hand. I planned on raising the turn for value if anything other than a K came.

Turn: (5.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, CO raises, Hero???

The CO, who had previously been playing tightly, raises on a board that now has 3 consecutive broadway cards. I'm thinking he has at least 2 pair and pocket 3's are not out of the question. A straight seems unlikely, as he didn't seem like the type to call with a gutshot on the flop. Is 4.25 to 1 good enough to continue with top pair and a gutshot in this situation?

aK13 · #2 04-25-2005, 04:40 PM

Raise the flop. With SB being the probable bettor on the turn as well, there's no way to raise to protect your hand. Just raise while you're ahead.

I would probably fold to the turn raise against an unknown, as I want to showdown my hand, but it's probably going to cost me 3 BB (or more if SB 3bets).

shadow29 · #3 04-25-2005, 04:54 PM

Don't get fancy on the flop, just raise.

On the turn, against unknowns, I'm willing to let this go. I seriously doubt that another Q wins here, your only real draw is to a (probable) chop with the K. you'd need to make up 6 (!) bets on the river, time to fold.

CO has JT, QT, or 33.
SB has Qx.

Isura · #4 04-25-2005, 05:23 PM

You have to raise this flop. THis is not a time to wait until the turn to raise. You have 4 good outs to the straight, but they must be discounted since you will only split sometimes. You also have some outs to 2 pair or trips against smaller 2 pairs. I think it's close, but I don't have a problem with folding the turn. And make a note that villian open-limped from the CO with 1 poster.

ErrantNight · #5 04-25-2005, 05:25 PM

don't be a donk. raise the flop. just because you can/should protect your hand sometimes, doesn't mean you always should. raise for value, there's no indication you're going to be in any more position to protect your hand on the turn, so there's no reason to wait. your flop equity is HUGE.

the turn will be much easier to play after that, but the long and short of it is you want to see the river.

ErrantNight · #6 04-25-2005, 05:32 PM

to address the turn seperately: the pot will be larger if you'd played the flop correctly, but let's say the action is the same on the turn...

you're getting 1:5 now on the turn to call the raise with top pair and a bunch of outs which you aren't sure (aside from the K) aren't good.

now, i'm sure you could do an extensive mathematical analysis weighting your straight outs for the possibility of a chop, your two pair outs because there's a (slim) chance someone has a set, or already has two pair that they may fill up on when you hit, incorporating the possibility that this gets 3-bet and capped behind you...

but i'm inclined to say after all this that it's damned close, but a read would help, and i want to see the river. if this action is repeated on the river and i don't improve i'm folding, nor am i calling for one more if i have to overcall.

the problem is that due to your flop passivity SB could be auto-betting this turn with, say, anything. and the CO, while tight, is not necessarily passive given your description. he could be semi-bluff raising the scare card, he might have nailed two pair and wants to charge draws, he could be trying to get this headsup on the end. you just don't know.

bozlax · #7 04-25-2005, 05:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A raise here doesn't protect my hand. I planned on raising the turn for value if anything other than a K came.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since first-to-act is the bettor, and you're last-to-act, the only thing that protects your hand anywhere is SB betting, CO calling, you raising and SB 3-betting. Raise for value, here, with the best hand.

That changes the nature of your decision on the turn, of course. As you played it, I flee screaming against unknowns.

Mister Z · #8 04-25-2005, 05:42 PM

I don't think this is the hand to wait until the turn to raise. I think you need to raise to know where you stand and to get the money in the pot while you can.