Good laydown?

xwillience · #1 04-25-2005, 04:32 PM

first hand at this table:
PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.05.
UTG calls, 2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) raises, 1 fold, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)

could have been a better flop..

SB checks, R^Hanzo bets, UTG raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero 3-bets, Button calls, SB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

im not sure but i think im beat with a flopped str8 or at the very least an OESD

Turn: (15.50 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
R^Hanzo bets, UTG calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, Hero folds, Button calls, UTG calls.

a lot of action up front and MP1 waking up makes me think my TPTK isnt any good but then again it seems pretty loose.. i opt for the safer route and fold

River: (24.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
R^Hanzo bets, UTG folds, MP1 calls, MP2 raises, Button folds, R^Hanzo calls, MP1 calls.

this is where i start to kick myself not that it matters at though

Final Pot: 30.50 BB

what do u think is this the right laydown or should i have called down

realbad101 · #2 04-25-2005, 04:43 PM

I like this laydown. One of the biggest leaks in my game that I have worked on recently is folding after a raise and re-raise in front of you on the turn, post heavy flop action. Realize that it could take at least 4 more big bets or more to get to showdown.

Also, the river queen is meaningless here, since your decision is on the turn.

aK13 · #3 04-25-2005, 04:45 PM

I think it's a respectable laydown. The action on the flop and the continued action on the turn seems to suggest your TP is no good.

UncleSalty · #4 04-25-2005, 04:47 PM

Converter seems to have messed up the hand pretty good, but from what I can tell, I'm calling down from the turn. This pot is HUGE.

@bsolute_luck · #5 04-25-2005, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Converter seems to have messed up the hand pretty good, but from what I can tell, I'm calling down from the turn. This pot is HUGE.

[/ QUOTE ]

even with the pot being huge, why put more $$ in when you're beat? your TP isn't good. and you're drawing to 3 outs (discounts for A/Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and those might not even win the hand for you.

lay down is good IMHO.

flyangler · #6 04-25-2005, 05:21 PM

These are the hands that kill me night after night it seems. TPTK but enough on the board that it scares me off. I would have probably gone after it anyway though. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

UncleSalty · #7 04-25-2005, 05:40 PM

If you're definitely beat on the turn, it could only be by a set or a made straight. Why wouldn't a made straight cap the flop here?

I think a lot of the time it's either 2 pair or a set, and there's no way to have a solid read of which. TPTK is getting good odds to draw to top two pair or better on the turn, (if that hand is even good, and I acknowledge that a large percentage of the time it's not.)

Still, I don't think you have enough of a read on the turn to know you're drawing dead for certain. I'm still calling down, but I'd like to hear more about the case for folding.

jwesty5 · #8 04-25-2005, 06:06 PM

What are your pot odds to call on the turn? It looks like around 10-1. Will your hand be good 9% of the time? Probably. I'd call.

UncleSalty · #9 04-25-2005, 06:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What are your pot odds to call on the turn? It looks like around 10-1. Will your hand be good 9% of the time? Probably. I'd call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure that this is the correct approach, because I feel that there is actually less than a 9% chance we are good on the turn. The action is telling us very strongly that no one is afraid of the Q.

The correct analysis is to determine how often we are good if we improve. Clearly 10:1 is plenty good enough to call the turn if top 2 pair wins 100%. By that logic, if you only win 82% of the time with top 2 or better, your effective pot odds are really only 8.2:1, or breakeven for a 5 out draw.

Looking at it in this light, I don't think we'll be up against 2 pair often enough to make up for the times we're against a set (or otherwise drawing dead.) This is probably a correct fold on the turn.

ErrantNight · #10 04-25-2005, 06:54 PM

yes. it's an easy laydown, too.