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  #1  
Old 04-24-2005, 10:07 AM
imported_excel imported_excel is offline
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Posts: 213
Default Winning Player

Firstly, Im starting afresh, no arguing with any posters, and sorry if I offenended posters in the past.

Secondly, if you dont like the subject of my posts, please dont read or leave dumb comments.
Thankyou.


Im not saying this is the way to play, Im just highlighting its not a losing way of playing, theres a few players with high vpip combined with high pfr who I believe are long term winners


The player I highlight below is the extreme and also one of the best.

Player always 4 tables, and can play for many hours.


$15/$30
Hands 83,797
VP$IP 51.78
VP$IP SB 67.29
Saw Flop all hands 49.97
Saw Flop not a blind 40.16
Folded SB to steal 49.57
Folded BB to steal 29.29
Folded BB to steal HU 23.01
Att to steal blinds 69.81
Won $ when saw flop 42.97
BB/100 2.48
Went to showdown 42.06
Won $ at SD 48.41
Raised preflop 41.01
Folded to river bet 40.64
Check raise 3.56


80k hands is a very good hand sample, hes more than a marginal winner.

Any comments, rather than dismissing as short term luck.
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  #2  
Old 04-24-2005, 10:09 AM
Trix Trix is offline
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Default Re: Winning Player

sort for 5-6 players, else itīs very hard to compare these stats as people dont play the same ammount of real short-handed.
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  #3  
Old 04-24-2005, 10:17 AM
JohnnyHumongous JohnnyHumongous is offline
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Posts: 382
Default Re: Winning Player

I personally think a higher VPIP is more profitable in many cases (my VPIP at 6-max is north of 30), but I have to say this is the most blatant example of selection bias I have ever seen. Anyone who has studied statistics or econometrics can see this. You are selecting one person who has succeeded using a massively high VPIP. However, the fact is that if you took a field of say 1,000 players today who all play with VPIP of 50 at 15/30 the percentage that succeed 80K hands later will be VERY small. But, there will be a few; this is just probabilistic distribution. You have found those few and are now backwards-justifying their wins.

I heard about a guy who made like $17 million playing casino games (you know, house edge-type games that are "foolish" to selective gamblers like we try to be). This guy was walking around Vegas with beautiful Rolexes. He went flat broke eventually. Out of all the millions of gamblers who go to casinos, probabilistic distribution dictates that some of them will outrun the averages for a VERY long time and make massive money. But it proves nothing. They are playing -EV games pure and simple.
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  #4  
Old 04-24-2005, 10:20 AM
JohnnyHumongous JohnnyHumongous is offline
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Default Re: Winning Player

And yes, you should sort for 5 or 6 players because who knows if this guy is one of the heads-up specialists on Party who go around looking for 2- or 3-way games, in which case his VPIP is obviously going to be high.
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  #5  
Old 04-24-2005, 10:22 AM
Danenania Danenania is offline
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Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 13
Default Re: Winning Player

[ QUOTE ]
sort for 5-6 players, else itīs very hard to compare these stats as people dont play the same ammount of real short-handed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree. These stats could be great for someone playing primarily heads-up/3-handed but it seems nearly impossible that they could make money in a 6-handed game.
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  #6  
Old 04-24-2005, 10:41 AM
MoDOH MoDOH is offline
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Posts: 412
Default Re: Winning Player

How is this possible?

VP$IP 51.78

Saw Flop all hands 49.97
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  #7  
Old 04-24-2005, 11:15 AM
ALL1N ALL1N is offline
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Posts: 156
Default Re: Winning Player

[ QUOTE ]
How is this possible?

VP$IP 51.78

Saw Flop all hands 49.97

[/ QUOTE ]

How about you raise and steal the blinds? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #8  
Old 04-24-2005, 11:33 AM
MoDOH MoDOH is offline
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Default Re: Winning Player

which leads me to believe these hands are from HU or 3-handed games rather than full 6-max tables.
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  #9  
Old 04-24-2005, 11:51 AM
imported_excel imported_excel is offline
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Default Re: Winning Player

The games are from Party $15/$30

3 games, always a queue waiting to join so very few 3-4 handed games,

When 6 players at a table he plays 40.99% vpip and pfr 40.86%

75,000 of the hands are with 5 or more players

No advantage of table selection, even when playing $10/$20 never tables swaps.

If other players cant adapt to this style then maybe it is profitable.

Also, he wins when he has nothing when also the other players have nothing, you cant bluff this player,

What are the advantages of this playing style?
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  #10  
Old 04-24-2005, 11:54 AM
Kimpan Kimpan is offline
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Posts: 133
Default Re: Winning Player

possible to post some of the hands that are "loose"?
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