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  #1  
Old 04-23-2005, 06:38 PM
JackOfSpeed JackOfSpeed is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 12
Default Key Million $ guaranteed hand...

Ok guys. I'm a tourney noob. Thoughts on this one?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (10 handed) converter

Hero (t2366)
MP2 (t3525)
MP3 (t1249)
CO (t1738)
Button (t2370)
SB (t2230)
BB (t3622)
UTG (t2365)
UTG+1 (t4315)
UTG+2 (t2635)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls t450, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t1125) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets 775, Button pushes all in [1918], Hero calls 1139.
Turn: (t4957) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t4957) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t4957

Thoughts - guess preflop is pretty standard. Is the flop bet the right size (775 into 1125)? Do I have any business calling his push on the flop, or do I leave more than 1/2 my stack in this flop?
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  #2  
Old 04-23-2005, 07:20 PM
Shilly Shilly is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Madison, WI
Posts: 128
Default Re: Key Million $ guaranteed hand...

Looks fine to me; the only hand I can see him having that beats you is AJ, I don't really think he has AK here. I don't think a set is very likely, either.
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  #3  
Old 04-23-2005, 07:46 PM
CardSharpCook CardSharpCook is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: South of Heaven
Posts: 746
Default Re: Key Million $ guaranteed hand...

You have no business folding to his AI, that is for sure. There are a wide range of hands that beat you, but a draw for him is very possible as is an ace that loses to you. I think you are ahead here more times than not, but even if you think you are not you have tremendous pot odds weighing against your read. Give it a call.

CSC
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  #4  
Old 04-24-2005, 07:58 PM
JackOfSpeed JackOfSpeed is offline
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Posts: 12
Default Results...

Thanks to you two for the responses.

Turns out that Button had AJ for 2 pair (which became a unbeatable fullhouse on the turn).

After reading Mike Gallo's post last night, I felt like my post might be considered sorta a bad beat post. But I was genuinely curious if my bet on the flop was the right size (did it commit me to this pot?), and, of more interest, whether I could get away from the hand as things were - I really felt his push on the flop indicated AJ (or perhaps JJ, or 44 A4s if he's a tard). Are there many players out there gutsy enough to make this push with A10 or some sort of draw?
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  #5  
Old 04-24-2005, 08:16 PM
DaveWilliams DaveWilliams is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 16
Default Re: Results...

You played it fine. Thank the poker gods for your virtues.
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  #6  
Old 04-24-2005, 08:53 PM
radioheadfan radioheadfan is offline
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Posts: 4
Default Re: Key Million $ guaranteed hand...

Why couldn't button have AK? I'd call with AK on the button in this situation about 50% of the time, reraising all in the other half. But I'd be scared of AK more than anything else when button pushes.
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  #7  
Old 04-24-2005, 09:33 PM
JackOfSpeed JackOfSpeed is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 12
Default Re: Key Million $ guaranteed hand...

Scared enough to make the laydown, when half your stack's in the pot?
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