No more live poker for two weeks.

[steamboatin]

I think this is beyond normal variance and I need to take a break. Luckily I ran good for a long time and I am still ahead for the year but I think this requires a stop and think about it. Next to the last column is hours per session.



That's eight losers out of nine sessions and down $1,182 in 28.75 hours, that's just over -$41 per hour. My standard deviation per Statking is $153 per hour but that is only over the 56 hours I have loaded into Statking.

I thought about taking a break about the middle of this month but decided I wanted to play through my downswing. Maybe normal variance will account for this many losing sessions in a row but a break can't hurt.

The money isn't an issue because it is all from previous wins and doesn't change my standard of living in the slightest, I am worried about my game.

[Andy B]

I notice that this downturn began around the same time that you got that fool shirt. I think I'd burn it if I were you.

[steamboatin]

Only wore it once and I am pretty sure it isn't the shirt's fault. Actually the downturn started when I switched from the sporty grey tweed hat to the straw $6.95 Super Walmart special but I bet that isn't a major factor either.

[Randy_Refeld]

Your clothing could have more to do with it than you think. I play better in certain seat in B&M not becaue of any superstition but becasue I spend a lot of energy struggling to see from certain seats.

[The Goober]

Well, you should be able to figure out if this could fall within normal variance by using your SD. I think this sort of calculation is better done if you are using data from just one game, but I'll give it a shot anyways.

So, if I'm doing my math right, you are something like 95% likely to be within 2 SDs of your true mean. Lets suppose that you are beating this set of games for rougly $10/hr (which is probably high, because that'd be hard to make at 3-6). After 28.75 hours you would expect to be +$287.5. The low end of variance has you losing:

sqrt(28.75) * 2 * 153
= $1640

So, $287.5 - $1640 = $-1352.5. If I did my math right, this means that you could be a $10/hr winner and still be down even more than you are. Also note that I used 2 SDs from the mean, while Mason, in GTOT, uses 3 SDs. If you used 3, that means you could potentially be down as much as $2174.

Anyways, my point is that I think these results are definately possible given your SD. I agree with you, though, that taking a break might be prudent - losing 8 out 9 times is hard psychologically and after a run like that I know I'd probably wouldn't be playing my best poker.

[Onaflag]

Discalimer: I am not qualified to critique anyone's results but my own and cannot do the math. Furthermore, what I say may be stupid and irrelevent and have nothing whatsoever to do with results.

But....I am wondering if your sessions are comparatively short to other players sessions. Not that anything matters but the number of hands played in the long term, but is there any possibility of "manufactured losses" as I believe Caro puts it?

Where I play B&M, table texture changes often and it is easy for me to know when I am up against a group I probably shouldn't be up against. Sometimes the ones I'd rather not have at my table (and there are few) are just passing through to the bigger tables and the game turns fishy again. My point is, which may have been obscured by my rambling, that I would feel seriously crippled by these short sessions. That may very well be just me.

If I know there is no hope, fine, call it a night at 3 hours. Since I only play B&M on the weekends for the most part, that 3 hours of playing a marginally playable table is hugely offset when the players rotate in and out and I find myself in an incredibly +EV situation. It may not come until 3am when I'm down a rack (or more) and have been sitting there for 5 hours waiting for this perfect chemical makeup of human beings much dumber than me to congregate and fill each of the eight seats, but it usually comes.

Now that I think about it, could my wins be manufactured? Maybe. But I have the patience to sit there and wait for that moment. This is exactly why I don't stop by for a couple hours on my way home from work. I know I only have a couple hours and there is no way I could get in a groove and "make it happen" in such a short amount of time.

But that's just me and this post is probably useless.

Onaflag............

[JTrout]

Hey steamboatin!

I think it's good to take a break every now and then, and study your game.

For what it's worth:
Months ago in Tunica (when I met you), you played with a friend of mine.
His thoughts on your game:
Way too loose/passive. Calling station.

This was only 1 session, but I respect his opinion.
Do not mean to be critical. Hopefully just a little food for thought.

Good luck!
JTrout

[Luv2DriveTT]

your a nice guy Steamboatin... so let me tell you in the most direct way without being rude. Although this could be a product of short term varience, it is also likely that you are not a good player and you are not aware of it yet. We all have an eventual "awakening"... perhaps this will be yours, or perhaps I am way off base and talking out of my ass.... at least my intentions are good.

I reccomend you take a healthy dose of on-line play at the micro limits, and spend a lot of time posting hands and responding to posts in the micro forums, and also in the small stakes forum here. These two tools are perhaps more valuable than any book you can read, because their interactivity is worth it's weight in gold.

For the record, I was playing 3/6 and 5/10 online before I had my own personal awakening as well. I started from scratch all over again in the microlimits and swore I would never play beyond my bankroll. I re-started with just $100, just like our younger age compatriots here and built it up to a healthly 750BB roll before I moved on. Eventually I got back my confidence, and I now take stabs at games as big as 15/30 with no fear because I can now hold my own or crush the table depending on the enviroment variables.

Good luck my friend... keep wearing that shirt, and take my advice. Your too nice a guy to see go down in flames, let Doctor TT and the micro forum guys fix ya up!

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[steamboatin]

I have tightened up since then but may still be to loose. This last session, I went so long with out playing a hand that the other players were commenting on how long it had been since I played a hand.

I haven't playing for very long and I know I still have a long way to go. I appreciate the feedback because it is very difficult for me to step back and analyze my own play. If I wasn't willing to listen to the responses, I wouldn't have made this post.

[steamboatin]

Online, I am doing well. My VpIP is still to high but it is 2% lower now than in January. I played way to loose for about 11,000 hands so it takes a long time for the percentage to drop. I am at almost 14,000 hands now.

I have 4,700 hands at crypto 1-2 British Pounds winning $2.15 BB per 100. I have 2,800 hands at crypto $1-2 winning 6.27 BB per 100 and I have 4.600 hands at $.50-1 ( Party Poker) winning 1.27 BB per 100.

I have gotten my head kicked in at Party Bad beat tables but I acknowledge that was stupid play on my part. If I understand it correctly, any thing over 1 or 2 BB per hundred is considered acceptable but my sample size is still small.

Your reply very helpful, it is possible and probably likely, that I play looser live than online. The only place I am having problems is live.

I am not likely to go down in flames becasue I am not playing with money that I need to live. I am very serious about my poker game and I want to improve so don't worry about hurting my feelings. I appreciate your thoughts and your post is very welcome.