Big Pot. Bad Fold???

[Utah]

Party 15/30.

I am UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG Limps. I raise. 2 callers. BB reraises. UTG calls. I reraise. Everyone calls

5 to the flop capped. $300.

Flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]j[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets. UTG calls. I raise. Everyone calls. pot - $450

Turn 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB leads. I think I am in serious trouble. He raised preflop. Lead the flop and leads the turn into a large field with a 3 flush on the board and into the flop raiser and into the preflop capper.

UTG calls and I call. other 2 fold. Pot is $540

river is Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

BB bets. UTG folds. I fold. I figure there is no way I can win, even though I am getting about 18 to 1. There is no reason to think this guy is anything but a solid player.

He flips over 9,9. I snap.

Did I make a mistake here? I know I am getting huge odds to call the river but I just couldnt see anything I could beat given his play.

[diddle]

why not raise the turn

[DcifrThs]

just post the hand. not the results and your feelings b/c then you wont get biased responses.

but here's the thing. in huge pots onthe turn and river you dont want to worry about saving that last bet. you want to win the pot. folding gives you 0% probability of winning. do you know how sure you have to be that you're beat to fold that river?? i didn't count but probably 98% sure. only astro can make those single digit folds online [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

i can't tell the difference between 98% sure and 97% sure.

i call this river 100000% of the time.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
why not raise the turn

[/ QUOTE ]

because its a multiway pot w/ lots of flush possibilities out there and he has a redraw to the 2nd nut flush. he has to call all bets and raises back so its best to call here.

although, one can argue that if you can get a hand that has odds to draw against you to fold in this big pot for a raise then its worth having to call the 3 bet back.

-Barron

[bernie]

Terrible fold. I wouldn't put him on a flush on the turn. What hands are you putting BB on? Is he that LAGGY that he'd 3 bet out of the BB with a wide range of hands?

I'd raise the turn.

b

[Utah]

He had played solid to that point as far as I could tell. I figured AA, QQ, JJ, a set, or a flush. I cant beat any of them.

There is no way that I can put him on something as crazy as 99 and I couldnt think of a hand I beat given that he was betting into a large field on the flop and turn and he bet into 2 players on the river. What are the odds that I have a seemingly solid player beat here? It has to be far less than 10% and more likely .1%.

If I had seen erratic play or if the field had been smaller I would have called. Also, if the Q hadnt hit the river I would have called.

I thought of raising the turn, but it was somewhat likely given the flop action that someone had hit the flush and it was probable that the BB had me beat. So, I wanted to play as cheaply as possible. Probably a mistake.

[BigSkiRace]

I seriously dont know how any one can be a winning player at the PP 15/30 with out pokertracker....I still dont play 15/30 online or even close when playing online and I have it. If that software did not exist, I would have never even thoguht of going into online poker.

[Senor Choppy]

Your opponent has the ace of hearts and any other random card at least 1 time in 18.

If you don't make this call consistently, you might want to rethink playing the 15 on party.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought of raising the turn, but it was somewhat likely given the flop action that someone had hit the flush and it was probable that the BB had me beat. So, I wanted to play as cheaply as possible. Probably a mistake

[/ QUOTE ]

I misread and thought you were in a later position. I thought your call was closing the action. In that case, I'd have raised. Given that you have 2 players behind you that called all that action on the flop I can see calling the turn bet. But not because I fear the BBs hand. If he had the flush, wouldn't he likely go for the c/r?

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I seriously dont know how any one can be a winning player at the PP 15/30 with out pokertracker....I still dont play 15/30 online or even close when playing online and I have it. If that software did not exist, I would have never even thoguht of going into online poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Now back to the hand in question...

b