quick question about finish distributions...

syphlix · #1 04-22-2005, 05:28 PM

ok... i know ppl want you to have lots of tourney's before asking stats questions... but i'm not asking an ROI question here... just a finish question... as always... feel free to let me know if these results are insignificant...

however... truthfully i'm getting a little worried... i feel like my % of 1st is way lower than 2nd and 3rd's... and if this is a real problem i'd like to find a solution b4 i get to 500, 1000, 5000 tourneys or whatever it's supposed to be...

so i guess... if this question is totally out of line.. .just let me know... or if theres a real problem here... please let me know too...

thanks!
syphlix

ok... i've played 365 STT's so far... 104-11's, 255-22's, 6-33's...

my finish distribution from 1-10 is
1: 9%
2: 16.4%
3: 14.5%
4: 12.6%
5: 12.9%
6: 14.5%
7: 9.9%
8: 3.8%
9: 3.3%
10: 3.3%

Slim Pickens · #2 04-22-2005, 05:33 PM

Without a big discussion, I'll just say that even this 9-16% spread is within "normal" variance for a flat "true" distribution over 365 tournaments.

Misfire · #3 04-22-2005, 05:41 PM

What I think has helped me very recently are all the posts about bubble play, especially ramping up your agression so that when the bubble bursts, you're in a good position to dominate and take first rather than just hobbling into third.

My sample size is also too small for any statistical significance (I very likely could just be on a good run this month), but since trying to apply the bubble principles I've learned here, I've gone from about 9% first place to about 20%.

pokerlaw · #4 04-22-2005, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What I think has helped me very recently are all the posts about bubble play, especially ramping up your agression so that when the bubble bursts, you're in a good position to dominate and take first rather than just hobbling into third.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't agree more. Mad props to all the 2+2ers who introduced this strategy to me, as my 1st and 2nd place finishes are a LOT higher in number than back in Janurary even (right now I have 29.2% 1st place finishes and 21.5% 2nd place over my MONSTER 65 sample for April).

Using chips to be aggressive (raising and reraising to steal blinds/limps, using position to bluff, and abusing the tightness of others, etc) is FARRR more valuable that calling a 3BB raise and hoping that your AJ hits...this probably the single biggest change I have made.

Note - I play low limits (sample size is almost all $5+.50s, w a few 10s in there); i feel that on the higher tables, this concept of aggression on the bubble is not so unique, so the acquired edge from doing so may be less. of course, i am fully aware I might be talking out of my ass...

In closing: Once you get the biggest stack on the bubble, everything else is cream cheese, so work on getting there as frequently as possible. gl.

Slim Pickens · #5 04-22-2005, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What I think has helped me very recently are all the posts about bubble play, especially ramping up your agression so that when the bubble bursts, you're in a good position to dominate and take first rather than just hobbling into third.

[/ QUOTE ]

Testify! FYP by deleting the second paragraph.

I think you will be much better served to focus on play rather than results. IMO, finish distributions are a waste of time since by the time you can say anything meaningful about them, you know darn well where you stand by the size of your bankroll. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Slim

sabre170 · #6 04-22-2005, 06:47 PM

Practice heads-up play. PokerStars and UB both offer heads-up sit-n-gos that are ideal for this purpose.

valenzuela · #7 04-22-2005, 07:38 PM

just push anything remotely decent no need to practise heads-up play( TO IMPROVE ROI ON SNGS!)

Irieguy · #8 04-23-2005, 02:50 AM

The more SNGs I play, the more clear it becomes that there are really only two sample sizes:

1. A SNG
2. A bajillion-gazillion SNGs.

Until your sample is closer to #2 than #1, you really don't know very much.

The problem (with this forum) is that there are other ways to know how you are doing besides your spreadsheet stats. There could probably stand to be more discussion on this forum about other ways of assessing your SNG game.

There is absolutely no question in my mind that the luckiest 10 players on this forum over their last 1000 SNGs have a distorted view of SNG reality. The unluckiest 10 probably aren't even posting anymore. Who are the 10 best? That's what everybody wants to know, I guess...

I will say this, however; If I made a list of the top 10 SNG minds on this forum, the following criteria could all be fulfilled by it members:

1. Lost >40 buy-ins in the last year
2. Had a negative ROI for >500 SNGs
3. Had more seconds than firsts for >500 SNGs
4. Had a lower ROI at the same level than at least 10 people they knew over 1000 SNGs.
5. Considered quitting SNGs to play another form of poker in the past year.

I guess my point is that it isn't a very constructive use of thought and energy to worry about what your first-place percentage is, or what other people's first place percentages are. The most important question you can ask yourself about your SNG game is "how well am I moving my chips."

That's the question you want this forum to help you answer.

Irieguy

SuitedSixes · #9 04-23-2005, 03:02 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The most important question you can ask yourself about your SNG game is "how well am I moving my chips."

[/ QUOTE ]

I did a search, but couldn't find the spreadsheet that tracks this.

wuwei · #10 04-23-2005, 03:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The most important question you can ask yourself about your SNG game is "how well am I moving my chips."

[/ QUOTE ]

I did a search, but couldn't find the spreadsheet that tracks this.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, enough already. I'll go vote for you for funniest poster!