interesting concept

[Master Shake]

found this while crusing the web, figured id post it here and see what others thought about it
http://www.anthropic-principle.com/p....html#doomsday

[Jazza]

i agree, i find this concept very interesting

my old handle on 2+2 was jimdmcevoy, and my first post was this

from memory everyone said that it's BS for various reasons, but i wouldn't mind re-opening discussion on the topic in this thread

[xorbie]

At first glance, my opinion is that it's bull because the temporal element to population changes things.

[PairTheBoard]

So the basic idea is that whatever your birth position, say #60 billion in the Total number of humans born or yet to be born, That particular birth position is much more likely in a relatively small Total Number like say 100 billion than in a much larger Total Number like say 100 Trillion. In this case 1000 times more likely. A Bayes calculation is then made to conclude that the 100 Billion Total Number is much more likely than the 100 Trillion Total Number. I find it hard to believe anyone seriously tries to defend this silliness. I think the point to it is that similiar type reasoning DOES get applied in some areas where the slipperiness of it all is not so obvious.

PairTheBoard

[Jazza]

[ QUOTE ]
I find it hard to believe anyone seriously tries to defend this silliness

[/ QUOTE ]

Believe it, I have tried to defend it

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree, i find this concept very interesting

my old handle on 2+2 was jimdmcevoy, and my first post was this

from memory everyone said that it's BS for various reasons, but i wouldn't mind re-opening discussion on the topic in this thread

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the argument is invalid for trivial reasons. The argument rests on the assumption that one can choose a random number from a set with an unknown range. This obviously cannot be done. The Doomsday argument asserts that my "number" is random (in the everyday sense of not being special), and then makes the (unwarranted) assumption that it is random in the mathematical sense.

GG

[gasgod]

[ QUOTE ]
my old handle on 2+2 was jimdmcevoy, and my first post was this


[/ QUOTE ]

I followed that thread closely, and commented on it. My old handle was eldynamite.

GG

[Girchuck]

But what about a human #1000?
What makes human #1000 any more special than a human # 1000 million?

[Jazza]

nothing, i don't get it

[Jazza]

[ QUOTE ]
and then makes the (unwarranted) assumption that it is random in the mathematical sense

[/ QUOTE ]

please explain why this is unwarrented